宏观因素利好，多晶硅止跌翻红

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with a supply - demand dual - weak pattern. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. The weak industrial silicon prices lead to weak cost support for polysilicon, and factors such as unfulfilled demand expectations, high inventory, and geopolitical issues suppress price increases [7]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On March 25, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8560 yuan/ton and closed at 8770 yuan/ton, a change of 150 yuan/ton (1.74%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 230888 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on March 24, 2026, was 22212 lots, a change of 312 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8500 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8500 - 8600 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of March 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.3 tons, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous week [1]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees after the festival, and most inquiries were tentative [1]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%, and the supply side gradually recovered after the festival, but the operating rate in the southwest remained low during the dry season [1]. - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, providing strong cost support for industrial silicon [2]. Polysilicon - On March 25, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and rose, opening at 36495 yuan/ton and closing at 36750 yuan/ton, a change of 2.77% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 32820 lots (32746 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on the day was 12429 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon decreased. N - type material was 36.00 - 45.00 (-2.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 40.00 - 43.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.40, a month - on - month change of - 3.56%, silicon wafer inventory was 27.65GW, a month - on - month change of - 2.47%, polysilicon weekly output was 19000.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and silicon wafer output was 11.78GW, a month - on - month change of - 1.67% [4]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.99 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.29 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.09 (0.00) yuan/piece [4]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.40 (-0.01) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.39 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.40 (-0.01) yuan/W. HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.74 - 0.76 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.78 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - After continuous sharp declines, polysilicon rebounded due to the easing of geopolitical factors and the improvement of the macro - situation. However, the weak fundamentals and high inventory still suppressed price increases, and there was no positive policy news. The price is expected to remain volatile [6]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7][8] Influencing Factors Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production in the northwest and the suspension of production in the southwest - Changes in the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises - Policy disturbances - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment - The operating conditions of organic silicon enterprises [5] Polysilicon - US tariff adjustments - The impact of futures listing on the spot market - The influence of capital sentiment - Policy disturbances - The impact of the war in the Middle East on overseas photovoltaic demand [8]