现货市场进入平静期

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The spot market has entered a calm period. The domestic consumption is still in the recovery stage, and the social inventory has entered a downward channel. The zinc ore provides favorable support for zinc prices, and there is a possibility of overseas production cuts. The zinc price has priced in risks relatively fully, and if the Middle East crisis stabilizes later, the upward elasticity of zinc prices is still expected. In the long term, both the supply of ore and downstream consumption remain optimistic [4] 3. Summary by Directory Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$24.76/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,920 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,980 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On March 25, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,875 yuan/ton and closed at 22,935 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,768 lots, and the open interest was 101,745 lots. The highest price during the day reached 23,115 yuan/ton, and the lowest price reached 22,830 yuan/ton [2] Inventory Situation - As of March 25, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 255,200 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 116,475 tons, a decrease of 625 tons from the previous trading day [3]