中东战事或有反复，伊朗否认谈判

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The rebound of precious metal prices is mainly catalyzed by the cooling of liquidity concerns due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts, and the market risk appetite has been significantly restored. However, geopolitical risks still exist, and the US does not seem to have the initiative to end the war at any time. If the US and Iran cannot reach an agreement on the armistice conditions, the possibility of conflict escalation cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near future, and the Au2606 contract may fluctuate between 980 yuan/gram and 1060 yuan/gram. Silver has a similar macro logic to gold, and its price is also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2606 contract fluctuating between 17,500 yuan/kilogram and 18,500 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Iran's officials have denied the negotiation with the US. Iran has put forward five conditions for a ceasefire, including the enemy's cessation of "aggression and assassination", prevention of war recurrence, compensation, full end of military operations on all fronts, and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Non-belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination, and COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed new booking business (ordinary containers) to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq [1] - Futures market: On March 25, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1013.96 yuan/gram, up 3.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1016.92 yuan/gram, up 0.29% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 16,900.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,111.00 yuan/kilogram, up 6.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 967,928 lots, and the open interest was 214,737 lots. The night session closed at 18,000 yuan/kilogram, down 0.61% from the afternoon session [2] - US Treasury yields and spreads: On March 25, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.338%, up 0.79 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.451%, up 0.17 BP from the previous trading day [3] - Position and trading volume changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange: On March 25, 2026, on the Au2606 contract, the long position increased by 10,730 lots, and the short position increased by 1,662 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 529,275 lots, down 28.14% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2606 contract, the long position increased by 1,201 lots, and the short position increased by 2,174 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,496,495 lots, down 22.99% from the previous trading day [4] - Precious metal ETF holdings: The gold ETF holdings were 1,052.99 tons, up 0.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,514 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Precious metal arbitrage tracking: On March 25, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was -21.27 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -716.96 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 55.99, down 2.12% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 63.16, down 0.40% from the previous trading day [6] - Fundamental data: On March 25, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 80,426 kilograms, down 8.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 456,886 kilograms, down 14.48% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]