Guoxin Securities·2026-03-26 05:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Outperform the Market" [5][9] Core Insights - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 39.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.37 billion yuan, down 28.9%, primarily due to goodwill impairment of approximately 2.88 billion yuan related to its liquor business [1][7] - The beer business showed a slight increase in sales volume, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, while the average price per ton decreased by 1.4%. The share of premium products increased to nearly 25%, with Heineken sales growing by nearly 20% [1][7] - The liquor business faced significant challenges, with revenue of nearly 1.5 billion yuan, down 30.4% year-on-year, affected by weakened demand and changes in consumption scenarios [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - The beer business achieved a gross margin of 42.5%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material costs. The core EBITDA margin and EBIT margin increased by 3.9 and 3.8 percentage points, respectively, due to cost reductions and significant expense savings [1][7] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 98%, with operating cash flow of 7.13 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, and free cash flow of approximately 5.29 billion yuan after capital expenditures [2][8] - The earnings forecast for 2026-2028 has been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of 39.09 billion yuan, 39.86 billion yuan, and 40.75 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 2.9%, 2.0%, and 2.2%, respectively. Net profit is projected to be 5.92 billion yuan, 6.19 billion yuan, and 6.52 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting significant growth in 2026 [3][9]