油脂二季报：油脂：宏观和现实分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, the crude oil price remains high. The longer this situation lasts, the higher the impact of premiums on freight, fertilizers, and costs for agricultural products, especially those highly dependent on imports. Macro and policy factors mainly drive the disk price to be strong, but the volatility is also relatively large [113]. - For soybean oil, the negotiation on Brazil's quarantine specifications has not reached a conclusion. Attention should be paid to the potential pressure in the near - term being postponed, which will inevitably bring greater pressure in the long - term [113]. - For rapeseed oil, before the rapeseed supply shows a significant tightening in the 26/27 season, opportunities in the far - month spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil should be focused on. The near - month rapeseed oil is supported by issues such as the clearance of non - genetically modified rapeseed oil, and the inventory accumulation rhythm is slightly slower than expected, with inventory being postponed [113]. - For palm oil, South American soybean oil has not followed the sharp rise of palm oil, and the far - month price is cheaper. Seasonally, the export of overall oils and fats deteriorates in April and May. The issues related to Indonesia's B50 production capacity have not been resolved. The actual production of Indonesian biodiesel in 2025 was 14.94 million kiloliters, lower than the target of 15.6 million kiloliters. The target for 2026 is 15.65 million kiloliters. The methanol for Indonesian biodiesel raw materials mainly comes from Malaysia and the Middle East, which may be affected. The near - month inventory in the producing areas remains high. There are still CNF quotes for April shipments, with a relatively small inversion to the disk price, and there have been successive purchase transactions. During the Eid al - Fitr in India, the current fixed - price is high. It is estimated that India will import 850,000 tons in March, 847,000 tons in February, but the import will drop to 650,000 tons in April. After the domestic disk price rises, the producing areas are more willing to transfer inventory to the domestic market, so palm oil has been weaker than crude oil recently. There is a divergence between the macro - energy bullish factors and the actual fundamentals. If the war risk decreases, the repair of the 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil is worth attention. If the war continues, the price will also remain strong [113]. - There are rumors that the compliance obligation volume of US biodiesel for the 26 and 27 seasons will be announced late, but the US soybean oil disk has already factored in the positive expectations. Attention should be paid to the final policy implementation [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rapeseed - Canada: In the 26/27 season, the rapeseed planting area is 8.838 million hectares (8.9 million hectares in the February report), higher than the previous season's 8.748 million hectares. The yield per unit is 2.19 tons per hectare (2.17 tons per hectare in the February report), and the total output is 19.2 million tons, slightly lower than the previous season's 21.8 million tons. Assuming new processing plants are put into use, the crushing volume is expected to reach a new high of 12.5 million tons, resulting in a decrease in export volume to 7.7 million tons, lower than the previous season's 8.2 million tons. The trend yield per unit in the 26/27 season will be 2.5 - 2.6 tons per hectare. If the yield per unit is the same as that in the 25/26 season, the output will reach 21.97 million tons. These data were completed before the outbreak of the Middle East war, when the price was in the lower range of 600 Canadian dollars, but the rapeseed price has since risen by more than 100 Canadian dollars [17]. - Australia: In the 25/26 season, the rapeseed planting area in Australia was adjusted from 3.63 million hectares to 3.7 million hectares, the yield per unit was adjusted from 1.99 tons per hectare to 1.96 tons per hectare, the output was adjusted from 7.23 million tons to 7.7 million tons, and the export was adjusted from 5.4 million tons to 5.93 million tons. In the 26/27 season, the planting area is 3.55 million hectares, the yield per unit is 1.96 tons per hectare, and the output is 6.96 million tons. Drought conditions in key planting areas are expected to reduce the output prospects in the 2026 - 27 season. The latest rainfall forecast from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology from May to June shows an increased possibility of below - median rainfall. If this happens, farmers may be cautious about reducing rapeseed planting in the upcoming planting season. Nevertheless, the higher export price encourages some farmers in Western Australia to expand the rapeseed planting area [22]. - EU: The rapeseed output in the EU in the 25/26 season slightly decreased to 20.165 million tons, and is expected to be 20.8 million tons in the 26/27 season. The planting area in the 26/27 season is 6.5 million hectares, the yield per unit is 3.2 tons per hectare [23]. - Russia and Ukraine: The Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperatives Union has lowered the rapeseed output in 2025 to 3 million tons, lower than 3.7 million tons in 2024 and the previous forecast of 3.3 million tons. Due to adverse winter weather, up to 10% of the rapeseed planting area may need to be replanted. Due to severe frosts in February, the rapeseed output in some areas may be reduced by up to 20%, with the temperature dropping to minus 28 degrees Celsius in some areas. Consulting agencies have lowered the forecast of Ukraine's rapeseed output in 2026 to 3.7 million tons, lower than the forecast of 3.9 million tons a month ago. The Russian Federal Statistical Service estimates that the rapeseed output in 2025 will reach 5.5 million tons. According to the industry analysis of the Russian Agricultural Bank, as of the end of January, the rapeseed inventory at the end of January was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 79.6% compared with the average of the past four years. According to the estimate of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, the sown areas of spring rapeseed and winter rapeseed are expected to be 3.2 million and 2.9 million hectares respectively, with a total harvest of 5.8 million tons [27]. - Global: In the 26/27 season, if Canada's rapeseed output is 19.2 million tons, lower than the previous season's 21.8 million tons, the total output of major rapeseed - producing countries in the world will reach 56.46 million tons, a decrease of 1.71 million tons compared with the 25/26 season. If Canada's rapeseed yield per unit in the 26/27 season returns to the trend yield per unit, the output of the above - mentioned major producing countries will increase by 1.25 million tons to 59.41 million tons [30]. Palm Oil - Rainfall: In 2026, the rainfall in the Kalimantan region of Indonesia is scarce, especially in West Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan. In Malaysia, the rainfall in 2026 is higher than that of last year, with more rainfall in Sabah and West Malaysia [34][39][42]. - Production, Export, and Inventory in Malaysia: In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 18.55% month - on - month to 1.28 million tons, lower than the market forecast of 1.3 - 1.33 million tons, and the decline rate was also higher than the average level of 6.53%. Regionally, production in West Malaysia decreased by 16.3%, in Sabah by 22.64%, and in Sarawak by 2.47%. The export in February decreased by 22.48% month - on - month to 1.13 million tons, lower than the expected 1.18 - 1.19 million tons. The apparent consumption in February was 344,000 tons, close to the market forecast, and the inventory decreased to 2.704 million tons, higher than the market forecast of 2.63 - 2.65 million tons. In March, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by about 5%, the export will increase by 30% month - on - month, and the inventory may drop to about 2.3 million tons [54][57][58]. India As of March 20, the price spread between Indian crude soybean oil and crude palm oil widened to $39 per ton, compared with - $5 per ton the previous week. The price spread between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $165 per ton, compared with $160 per ton the previous week. The refined soybean - palm oil price spread was $113 per ton, compared with $54 per ton the previous week [64]. Soybean Oil - Price and Production in North and South America: The soybean oil prices in North and South America have diverged. Argentina's soybean crushing is in the seasonal increasing stage, while Brazil has high soybean oil consumption and low exports. In 2025, the combined soybean oil exports of the US, Brazil, and Argentina increased by 600,000 tons year - on - year [86][98][104]. Biodiesel - US: The proportion of soybean oil input in US biodiesel has decreased [108]. - Brazil: The Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA) has recently applied to the Ministry of Mines and Energy to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from the current 15% to 17% to cope with the impact of rising international oil prices. If the blending ratio is increased to B16 in March, the biodiesel production in 2026 will reach 10.44 million cubic meters, higher than 9.84 million cubic meters in 2025, and about 400,000 tons more soybean oil will be consumed [112].