氧化铝现货价格保持偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bullish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, Bahrain Aluminium may shut down its 250,000 - ton No. 4 production line if raw material problems persist. Overseas supply is still subject to disruptions, and although there is a possibility of rerouting exports, transportation is still difficult and overseas inventories are declining. Concerns about the US entering an interest - rate hike cycle are premature. Long - term fundamentals are still optimistic, and downstream processors can buy on dips for hedging [6]. - For alumina, the spot market is strong both at home and abroad. Guinea will clarify bauxite export restrictions in early April, and although it's not clear if it will cause a supply shortage, the policy - oriented price limit is clear, and cost support has significantly increased. The alumina supply - demand remains in surplus, but the spot market doesn't show the surplus. In the short term, alumina prices fluctuate with crude oil prices, and in the long term, the price center will rise due to raw material disturbances [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,760 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; East China aluminum spot premium is - 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,720 yuan/ton, and the spot premium remains at - 170 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,710 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton, and the aluminum spot premium is - 175 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On March 25, 2026, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opened at 23,655 yuan/ton, closed at 23,860 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The highest price was 24,030 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,610 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 314,226 lots, and the open interest was 266,870 lots [2]. Inventory - As of March 25, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 1.337 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 404,811 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 426,750 tons, down 925 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On March 25, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,785 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,750 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,755 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,790 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 312 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On March 25, 2026, the main alumina futures contract opened at 3,016 yuan/ton, closed at 2,963 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 2.15%. The highest price was 3,029 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,920 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 568,924 lots, and the open interest was 220,782 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 25, 2026, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 18,100 yuan/ton, and the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 18,500 yuan/ton, both up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 23,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 53,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 81,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,604 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 896 yuan/ton [5].