行业点评报告：同业存单备案规则调整的可能影响

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a potential adjustment in the management rules for interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) in 2026, which may reflect a three-tier regulatory approach aimed at controlling both the total amount and structure of funding [3][4] - It suggests that the focus of liabilities is shifting towards core deposits, with interbank CDs transitioning from a tool for active leverage to one for liquidity management [3] - The anticipated impact includes a contraction in the scale of interbank CDs and an increase in the issuance share of perpetual bonds by state-owned banks [5] - The report indicates that banks may face short-term supply shocks in interbank CDs, but there remains potential for interest rate declines throughout the year [6] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The management rules for interbank CDs may be adjusted, potentially leading to a unified management approach with financial bonds, aimed at preventing banks from excessively leveraging through interbank CDs [3] - The regulatory intent is to mitigate liquidity and interest rate risks by encouraging banks to replace short-term interbank CDs with more stable long-term liabilities [4] Market Impact - The issuance of interbank CDs is expected to shrink, particularly affecting smaller regional banks that have relied heavily on these instruments for liquidity management [5] - The issuance strategy may shift from a one-time annual registration to a more dynamic, demand-driven approach, increasing uncertainty in market supply and potentially leading to interest rate volatility [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on city commercial banks with ample project reserves and high regional economic vitality, such as Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chongqing Bank [7] - In the medium to long term, large comprehensive banks and specialized wealth management banks are expected to perform better, with recommendations for banks like China CITIC Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank [7]