光大期货金融期货日报-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock indices, the market opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.3% and returning above 3,900 points. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict may impact global energy supply, causing a sharp rise in crude oil and downstream industries. The Fed's hawkish stance and the increase in risk - aversion in the capital market may lead to a valuation decline in the previously strong technology sector of A - shares. It is recommended to balance the allocation of large - and small - cap indices for risk hedging [1] - For treasury bonds, the current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally bearish for the bond market. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the oil price center has significantly shifted upwards, accelerating the expected recovery of domestic inflation data. Short - term trading will be mainly in a volatile adjustment, with long - term interest rates under more pressure and short - term rates relatively stable supported by the capital market [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: IH rose 0.69% from 2,810.6 to 2,830.0; IF rose 1.40% from 4,388.4 to 4,450.0; IC rose 1.62% from 7,409.6 to 7,530.0; IM rose 1.22% from 7,387.2 to 7,477.4 [4] - Stock Indices: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.01% from 2,830.9 to 2,859.5; the CSI 300 rose 1.40% from 4,474.7 to 4,537.5; the CSI 500 rose 2.24% from 7,597.4 to 7,767.7; the CSI 1000 rose 1.98% from 7,600.9 to 7,751.2 [4] - Treasury Bond Futures: TS rose 0.01% from 102.48 to 102.49; TF fell 0.01% from 105.92 to 105.91; T fell 0.01% from 108.17 to 108.16; TL fell 0.05% from 111.24 to 111.18 [4] 3.2 Market News - The market opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. Green power, optical communication, computing power, and military industry sectors led the gains, while oil and gas stocks adjusted. Over 4,800 stocks rose, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan [5] - In terms of sectors, power, optical communication, computing power, and military industry sectors had the highest increases, while oil and gas, photovoltaic equipment, and gas sectors declined slightly [5] - There were 4,615 rising stocks, 105 limit - up stocks, 521 falling stocks, 4 limit - down stocks, and 14 stocks breaking the limit - up, with a limit - breaking rate of 17% [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [7][8][10] - Treasury Bond Futures: The report presents charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [14][15][17][19] - Exchange Rates: The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]