燃油贴水、裂解价差创极值后回落

Report Overview - The report focuses on the extreme price movements of high-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, analyzing the causes and future prospects [1][2] Key Data - On May 9, 2020, the Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil cracking spread reached a record high of $15.09 per barrel, and the east-west spread hit a record high of $88.62 per ton, then dropped to $40.63 per barrel on March 26, 2020, falling into negative territory [2] - On the same day in February 2020, the Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil contango reached a record high of $76.59 per ton, far exceeding the previous high of $61.88 per ton on September 17, 2019, and dropped to $29.6 per ton on March 25, 2025, still remaining at a relatively high level [2] - On March 25, 2025, the freight rate of product tankers TC-RDM2-SIN was $95.47 per ton, compared with $64.51 per ton at the beginning of March [2] Reasons for the Rise - In 2026, the high-sulfur fuel oil supply in the Asia-Pacific region was 510,730 thousand barrels, with Russia supplying 20,140 thousand barrels, Argentina 40,265 thousand barrels, Iran 516,660 thousand barrels, Iraq 8,450 thousand barrels, Saudi Arabia 16,000 thousand barrels, and Malaysia 56,886 thousand barrels (mostly re-exports from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela). Excluding Malaysia's re-export volume, the Middle East's high-sulfur fuel oil supply accounted for 21.2% of the Asian supply [3] - After the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means that at least 21.2% of the high-sulfur fuel oil supply in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be interrupted. The expectation of fuel oil supply disruption combined with the soaring freight rates drove the continuous strengthening of high-sulfur fuel oil [3] Future Prospects - The current high-sulfur fuel oil price shows characteristics driven by geopolitical factors. After the release of geopolitical premiums, further guidance from geopolitical situations is awaited [4]