有色商品日报-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated strongly. The import window for domestic refined copper remained open, but import profits declined. US import prices increased, indicating pressure spreading from energy to broader commodities. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran persisted, and inventory changes varied in different markets. After the copper price decline, downstream replenishment willingness increased. The copper price is expected to enter a shock bottom - seeking stage with support below and lack of upward drive. It is recommended to shift from a cautious short - bias strategy to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, paying attention to the performance of copper prices in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and with domestic production resumption and a large amount of imported alumina arriving, inventory pressure increased. The market's core contradiction shifted from high overseas geopolitical premiums to the weak reality of domestic inventory accumulation and slow demand recovery, as well as the logic of the upward repair of the copper - aluminum ratio. If there are no unexpected geopolitical disturbances, the aluminum price will be mainly adjusted weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the de - stocking inflection point and new geopolitical variables [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices continued to strengthen, but the primary nickel market showed significant pressure. On the demand side, stainless - steel inventory decreased, and the output of ternary materials was expected to increase. Due to the tightening of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, there were short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitical and market sentiment, as well as the expected quota supplement in July and the large inventory pressure of primary nickel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The US import price of copper increased, with a 1.3% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, and the pressure spread to broader commodities. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran were still volatile. LME inventory increased by 900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 681 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 10,599 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 503 tons. After the price decline, downstream replenishment willingness increased. The copper price is expected to enter a shock bottom - seeking stage, and the strategy is to shift to range - bound operations [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina rebounded, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and inventory pressure increased. The market's core contradiction shifted, and the short - term aluminum price is expected to be adjusted weakly [2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 2.15% and Shanghai nickel rose 1.33%. LME inventory decreased by 432 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons. Nickel ore prices strengthened, but the primary nickel market had pressure. Stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, and the output of ternary materials in March was expected to increase by 19% month - on - month. There are short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and inventory factors [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1,630 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 500 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10,599 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the inventory of SHFE decreased by 9,939 tons week - on - week [4]. - Aluminum: The price of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased, and the inventory of SHFE increased by 35,619 tons week - on - week. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 2,000 tons, and the social inventory of alumina increased by 40,000 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons, and the social inventory increased by 959 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price decreased by 0.2%, and the social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons week - on - week [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased by 1.9%, and the inventory of SHFE decreased by 2,472 tons week - on - week [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts 1 - 6 show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts 7 - 12 show the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][22]. - LME Inventory: Charts 13 - 18 show the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts 19 - 24 show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [30][32][34]. - Social Inventory: Charts 25 - 30 show the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [36][38][41]. - Smelting Profit: Charts 31 - 36 show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless - steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [42][44][46].