碳酸锂日报-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 4.34% to 159,120 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 152,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 5,000 yuan/ton to 149,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 143,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 618 tons to 31,460 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 760 tons to 24,186 tons, and the estimated lithium carbonate production in March increased by 28% month - on - month to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the estimated production of ternary materials in March increased by 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 24% month - on - month to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 86 tons to 98,873 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 458 tons to 46,105 tons, other links decreasing by 860 tons to 36,160 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 316 tons to 16,608 tons [3]. - The lagging demand data is difficult to strongly boost the market. The weekly de - stocking speed has significantly slowed down, and the downstream inventory level has relatively significantly recovered. Therefore, if the price rises sharply in the short term, it may lead to a weakening of downstream procurement enthusiasm. However, recently, due to geopolitical issues, the long - term energy substitution logic has strengthened, and the stock market has reacted more strongly. Concerns about overseas resource supply have resurfaced. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a gap in lithium ore supply. In the medium and long term, the price center will still move up, so it is still possible to consider bargain - hunting [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 159,120 yuan/ton, up 6,180 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 158,740 yuan/ton, up 6,300 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,143 US dollars/ton, up 71 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,175 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,600 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 12,325 yuan/ton, up 425 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 152,500 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 149,500 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 143,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 149,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 131,550 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 18.3 US dollars/kg, up 0.1 US dollars [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price was 107,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 9,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 16,893 yuan/ton, down 3,369 yuan [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of manganese - acid lithium and cobalt - acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells increased by 0.002 yuan/Wh, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells increased by 0.004 yuan/Wh, while other cell and battery prices remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of battery - grade metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. from 2024 to 2026 [17][19]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 to March 2026 [38][40]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [43].