Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to have a narrow - range shock. The cost support for steel has weakened due to the decline in iron ore and coking coal prices, and the weak demand, especially in the real estate sector, keeps the inventory at a relatively high level, suppressing steel prices [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to continue a high - level shock. The supply shows a mixed trend with increasing Australian shipments and slightly decreasing Brazilian shipments, and the demand is affected by the resumption of production of steel mills. Geopolitical factors also influence the cost [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate in a shock. For coking coal, the supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the cost and the price increase of coke. For coke, the supply and demand are both improving, but macro - disturbances are complex [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to maintain a shock trend. For manganese silicon, the cost has support, and the supply and demand are in a state of change. For silicon iron, the production profit has recovered, but the upward driving force is limited [1][3]. Summary by Directory Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 56,200 lots in positions. The spot price slightly decreased, and the transaction volume declined. The cost support weakened, and the demand was weak, so it is expected to have a narrow - range shock [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 806.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous trading day, with 380,000 lots in trading volume and a decrease of 32,000 lots in positions. The supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is expected to continue a high - level shock [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 8252 lots in positions. The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by cost and price increase, so it is expected to operate in a shock [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 2550 lots in positions. The supply and demand are both improving, but macro - disturbances are complex, so it is expected to operate in a shock [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 6492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 14,171 lots in positions. The cost has support, and the supply and demand are in a state of change, so it is expected to have a firm shock [1]. - Silicon Iron: The main contract of silicon iron closed at 6088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 3247 lots in positions. The production profit has recovered, but the upward driving force is limited, so it is expected to maintain a shock trend [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: The 5 - 10 month spreads for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are - 30.0, - 9.0, 29.0, - 88.5, - 136.5, - 68.0, - 78.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 2.0, - 2.0, - 4.5, - 13.0, - 14.5, - 8.0, 2.0 [3]. - Basis: The basis of the 05 contract for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are 98.0, - 23.0, 25.8, - 121.4, 17.0, - 342.0, - 388.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.0, 1.0, 2.1, 11.1, 8.5, - 62.0, - 38.0 [3]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou are 3230.0, 3160.0, 3450.0 respectively, with changes of - 10.0, - 10.0, 0.0. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou are 3290.0, 3290.0, 3320.0 respectively, with changes of - 10.0, 0.0, 0.0 [3]. - Profits and Spreads: The rebar disk profit is - 129.7, with a change of 26.9. The long - process profit is - 5.9, with a change of 15.1. The short - process profit is - 118.9, with a change of - 7.0. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread is 181.0, with a change of 2.0. The rebar to iron ore ratio is 3.9, with a change of 0.07. The rebar to coke ratio is 1.8, with a change of 0.01. The coking coal to iron ore ratio is 2.2, with a change of 0.02. The double - silicon spread is 404.0, with a change of 22.0 [3]. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 to 2026 [5][6][8][12]. - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [15][16][19][21]. - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [24][25][28][29][31][33][35]. - 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the inter - variety contract spreads such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, coking coal to iron ore ratio, coking coal to coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [36][37][38][39]. - 3.5 Rebar Profits: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract [41][44]. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [46]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures field [46]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [46]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [47].
黑色商品日报-20260326
Guang Da Qi Huo·2026-03-26 07:26