劲方医药-b（02595）：2025 年亏损收窄、现金充裕，差异化泛 RAS 管线即将发力，维持买入

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 51.00, indicating a potential upside of 59.4% from the current price of HKD 32.00 [1][6][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a narrowing of losses in 2025, supported by a cash reserve of over HKD 2 billion post-IPO, which will bolster R&D and operations for the next 2-3 years. The commercialization performance of Fluorouracil after its inclusion in the medical insurance list is anticipated to drive significant sales growth in 2026 [2][6]. - The report highlights the potential of the differentiated pan-RAS pipeline, with upcoming data releases for GFH375 in pancreatic and lung cancer expected to be promising. The next-generation RAS-targeted molecules are also anticipated to show early clinical success [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 130 million, a 24% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by overseas collaboration income related to GFH375. R&D expenses are expected to decrease by 15% due to reduced licensing costs associated with Fluorouracil [6][12]. - The adjusted loss for 2025 is expected to narrow by 9% to RMB 227 million, with operating cash outflow decreasing by 34% to RMB 136 million. The year-end cash and bank balance is projected to exceed RMB 2 billion, providing a solid foundation for future R&D and operations [6][12]. - The report provides updated revenue forecasts for 2026E at USD 85 million, with a gross profit of USD 33 million and a gross margin of 39.3%. The net loss for 2026E is projected at USD 353 million [6][12]. Pipeline and Catalysts - The report emphasizes several upcoming catalysts, including the completion of patient enrollment for GFH375 in Phase III trials for pancreatic cancer and the initiation of a registrational study for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Additionally, confirmation of the recommended Phase II dose (RP2D) for GFH276 and the entry of more preclinical products into IND applications are expected [6][12].