瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week, and industrial demand continued to increase. Although reserve supplies are being continuously released, most urea factories still face a tight supply situation. Some factories' previous inventory has gradually decreased. Next week is the final stage of stockpiling, and some local factories are actively releasing reserves, which may drive the inventory of urea enterprises to decline. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1900 in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1875 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea was - 64 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [2] - The position volume of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 196,640 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4,576 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea was - 35,926 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 618 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 9,024 sheets, with a week - on - week increase of 239 sheets [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui were 1870 yuan/ton, 1860 yuan/ton, 1890 yuan/ton, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remaining unchanged and that in Shandong increasing by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [2] - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea was 595 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port was 712.5 US dollars/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory was 16.7 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.2 million tons; the enterprise inventory was 70.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.84 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate was 92.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the daily urea output was 217,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20%; the monthly output of urea was 6,035,310 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 254,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 49.97%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine was 59.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 5.96 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China was 131 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 59 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was 1,012 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 726 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers was 444.13 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 73.86 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 32,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,400 tons [2] Industry News - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 million tons, a decrease of 10.84 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.40%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this period [2] - As of March 26, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 16.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons, an increase of 1.20%. The urea port inventory fluctuated slightly this period [2] - As of March 26, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4756 billion tons, a decrease of 43.8 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.88%. The capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a decrease of 3.84 percentage points from the previous period, showing an obvious downward trend. There were 4 new enterprise device shutdowns and 4 shutdown device restarts during the period. Considering that there may be 1 enterprise device planned to shut down next week and 2 - 3 shutdown enterprise devices may resume production, and taking into account the possibility of short - term enterprise failures, there is a relatively high possibility of a slight increase in output [2] Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]