瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the HC2605 contract fluctuated weakly. The macro - situation shows that the US has sent proposals to end the war to Iran through friendly countries, and Iran is studying them. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 78.07%. Terminal demand continued to recover, and inventory declined again. Overall, terminal demand is resilient, and there is still support from the cost side, but the chaotic situation between the US and Iran affects market sentiment. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,305 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; HC main contract position is 962,265 lots, down 40,839 lots; HC contract top 20 net position is - 61,681 lots, up 156 lots; HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 8 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 537,279 tons, up 8,827 tons; HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 177 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou is 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. HC main contract basis is 15 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 794 yuan/wet ton, down 1 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,990 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 17,102.67 tons, down 89.13 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 52.35 tons, down 3.75 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 687.78 tons, up 0.16 tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 239.94 tons, down 9.59 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 79.80%, up 1.44%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.55%, up 2.65%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 tons, up 5.4 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 78.07%, up 1.38%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 83.85 tons, down 1.11 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 369.42 tons, down 6.91 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons; the steel net export volume is 747 tons, up 18 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile output is 167.24 tons, down 77.74 tons; the monthly automobile sales volume is 180.52 tons, down 54.13 tons. The monthly air - conditioner output is 2,162.89 tons, up 660.29 tons; the monthly household refrigerator output is 1,001.15 tons, up 56.95 tons; the monthly household washing machine output is 1,197.50 tons, down 3.80 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On March 26, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period is 305.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.4 tons; the factory inventory is 83.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 tons; the social inventory is 369.42 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 tons; the total inventory is 453.27 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 tons; the apparent demand is 313.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 tons. The Ministry of Commerce determined that Mexico's measures of raising import tariff rates on products from non - free - trade partners such as China constitute a trade and investment barrier [2]