瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the international oil price is high due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which boosts the international corn market price. In the domestic market, the willingness of grain holders to sell is increasing as the purchase price rises, but the price increase is limited by factors such as mildew risk, cautious purchases by drying towers, and the enhanced substitution effect of wheat. The corn futures price of the main 2605 contract closed down 0.08% and maintained an adjustment trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply pressure has increased as the corn starch enterprise's operating rate has risen due to the increased supply of raw material corn. The industry inventory pressure has also slightly increased. However, supported by the good price of raw material corn, the starch spot market performs well, and the starch market has maintained a relatively strong shock recently [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2376 yuan/ton, and the corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2765 yuan/ton. The corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 6 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7) is - 29 yuan/ton. The futures positions of the active contracts of yellow corn and corn starch are 1198270 hands and 261034 hands respectively, with changes of - 34473 hands and - 4239 hands. The net buying volume of the top 20 positions in corn and corn starch is - 198088 hands and - 21878 hands respectively, with a change of - 706 hands for corn [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn and corn starch are 65858 hands and 4675 hands respectively, with changes of - 1787 hands and - 50 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is - 11 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of CBOT corn futures (active contract) is 5.25 cents/bushel, the total position of CBOT corn is 1773499 contracts, an increase of 50191 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 312342 contracts, with a position quantity of 54561 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2452.55 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.1 yuan/ton. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2900 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3040 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. - The fob price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2400 yuan/ton, with no change. The CIF price of imported corn is 2150.25 yuan/ton, with a change of 3.42 yuan/ton. The international freight of imported corn is 0 US dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the corn starch main contract is 135, a decrease of 2; the basis of the corn main contract is - 0.1. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 496 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton [2]. - The average spot price of wheat is 2590.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 835 yuan/ton, an increase of 98 yuan/ton. The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 432.34 million hectares, etc., and the predicted yields are 36.93 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.96 million tons, and 29 million tons respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 44.7 tons, a decrease of 24.9 tons; the corn inventory in northern ports is 247 tons, an increase of 28 tons. The deep - processing corn inventory is 376.9 tons, an increase of 39.2 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons. The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 30.27 days, an increase of 0.21 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 134.14 tons, an increase of 7.28 tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 58.76%, an increase of 3.15%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 60.98%, an increase of 2.18% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.13%, an increase of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.75%, an increase of 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.92%, a decrease of 4.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 11.92%, a decrease of 4.99% [2]. Industry News - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port is 23.4 tons, a decrease of 5.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory is 14.7 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons from last week; the imported sorghum is 49.2 tons, an increase of 9.70 tons from last week; the imported barley is 77.7 tons, an increase of 7.20 tons from last week [2]. - The ongoing US - Iran conflict affects the international oil price, which boosts the international corn market price and is also beneficial to the domestic market [2]. Key Points to Focus On - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating and inventory conditions of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]