白糖产业日报-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - In the domestic market, the cumulative year-on-year increase in sugar imports from January to February was significant, far exceeding market expectations. The 2026 January - February cumulative sugar imports were 520,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44,000 tons or 563.1%. As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 19 sugar mills in Guangxi have shut down, 49 fewer than the same period last year. The market generally expects a wave of concentrated shutdowns in late March. However, the sugar import data in January and February far exceeded expectations, putting some pressure on the market [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar was 5,463 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the main contract position was 317,898 lots, down 774 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16,342, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 115,328 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 520, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,399 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,585 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,335 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,502 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,325 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area was 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840,330 hectares, an increase of 5,240 hectares; the total sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2297 million tons, a decrease of 890,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,014 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was - 95 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,078 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was - 117 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The monthly sugar import volume was 520,000 tons; the cumulative sugar import volume was 520,000 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 199,230 tons, an increase of 44,170 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan was 69,750 tons, an increase of 16,550 tons; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Guangxi was 565,130 tons, an increase of 162,230 tons; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan was 149,340 tons, an increase of 50,930 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 359,040 tons, an increase of 228,740 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.3421 million tons, an increase of 296,400 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.43%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 11.43%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 10.99%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] Industry News - In Inner Mongolia, the 2025/26 sugar - making season ended, with a final sugar output of 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,500 tons, 15,000 tons lower than expected. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell sharply from a more than five - month high on Wednesday, dragged down by the energy market, closing down 0.33 cents or 2.10% at 15.55 cents per pound [2]