钢材&铁矿石日报：产业格局弱稳，钢矿高位震荡-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Rebar: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.35% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, rebar demand is continuously improving, while supply is weakly stable. The fundamentals are seasonally improving, and strong raw materials provide cost support, pushing the steel price back to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, the strength of demand improvement is uncertain, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - Hot-rolled Coil: The main contract price fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.45% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, the demand for hot-rolled coils has recovered well. Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals have improved, and strong raw materials provide cost support, pushing the price back to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, demand concerns remain, and the upward driving force is weakening under the high inventory situation. The subsequent trend is expected to continue the oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - Iron Ore: The main contract price oscillated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.18% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, energy shortages have raised concerns about overseas mine production, and supply disruptions support the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the overvalued ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Transportation Investment: From January to February, China's highway and waterway fixed - asset investment was 272.928 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. Among them, highway construction investment was 244.933 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%, and waterway construction investment was 27.995 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [7]. - Air - conditioner Market: In the first quarter of 2026, after a short - lived "spring" of policy stimulus and consumption recovery at the beginning of the year, the air - conditioner market failed to continue the recovery trend. In February, the retail volume of air - conditioners was 2.33 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 25.3%, and the retail sales were 7.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7%. The latest production scheduling data shows that in April 2026, the total domestic air - conditioner production scheduling decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, with the domestic sales production scheduling decreasing by 6.8% year - on - year, and exports also decreasing by 12.6% year - on - year under multiple factors [8]. - Steel Production: In mid - March 2026, key steel enterprises produced 20.27 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.027 million tons, a 0.8% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 181,400 tons, a 0.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.84 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 198,400 tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.91 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous ten - day period [9]. Spot Market - Steel Products: Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was priced at 3,190 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; the national average was 3,333 yuan, down 4 yuan. Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,240 yuan, unchanged; the national average was 3,329 yuan, down 1 yuan. Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,980 yuan, unchanged, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,190 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil - rebar price difference was 100 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,000 yuan [10]. - Iron Ore: PB fines at Shandong ports were priced at 788 yuan, up 3 yuan; Tangshan iron concentrate (wet - based) was 772 yuan, up 5 yuan. Ocean freight from Australia was 10.85 yuan, down 0.64 yuan; from Brazil was 30.03 yuan, down 0.24 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.98 yuan, down 0.62 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 106.50 yuan, down 2.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The active contract closed at 3,128 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%. The highest price was 3,138 yuan, and the lowest was 3,125 yuan. The trading volume was 406,440 lots, a decrease of 187,168 lots, and the open interest was 1,167,209 lots, a decrease of 40,108 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The active contract closed at 3,305 yuan, a decrease of 0.45%. The highest price was 3,320 yuan, and the lowest was 3,301 yuan. The trading volume was 214,049 lots, a decrease of 88,281 lots, and the open interest was 962,265 lots, a decrease of 40,839 lots [14]. - Iron Ore: The active contract closed at 817.0 yuan, an increase of 0.18%. The highest price was 823.0 yuan, and the lowest was 808.0 yuan. The trading volume was 216,414 lots, a decrease of 162,235 lots, and the open interest was 408,026 lots, a decrease of 6,288 lots [14]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and inventory has been continuously reduced. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 54,600 tons month - on - month, and supply has shrunk. However, the profit per ton of the product is acceptable, and its sustainability needs to be monitored. At the same time, rebar demand has continued to improve seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 172,800 tons month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year. Other demand indicators are still average, and there is no substantial change in the downstream. The strength of future demand improvement is uncertain. The subsequent trend should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have continued to rise. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 54,000 tons month - on - month, and supply has continued to rise. The inventory level is still high, and the supply pressure has been relieved to a limited extent. At the same time, the demand for hot - rolled coils has good resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 31,200 tons month - on - month, but the high - frequency trading volume has declined from its peak. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level. Attention should be paid to the intensification of contradictions, and there are continuous overseas disturbances, and export performance is average. Demand concerns remain. The subsequent trend is expected to continue the oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - Iron Ore: There have been changes in both supply and demand. Steel mills have actively resumed production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded from a low level. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills both increased significantly month - on - month, in line with expectations. However, the improvement in steel mills' profitability is limited, and the contradictions in the steel market have not been resolved. The room for improvement in iron ore demand may be limited. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased slightly, and the shipments from overseas miners have continued to increase. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals are expected to be stable, and domestic ore production is recovering. Iron ore supply is increasing steadily. The subsequent trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [41].