玉米淀粉日报-20260326

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and crude oil is expected to oscillate strongly. It is predicted that US corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The amount of corn in North China has increased, and the upward space of corn spot is limited. Northeast corn is stable, and the purchase price at the northern port is stable today. The auction transaction price of North China wheat has declined, and the price difference between Northeast corn and North China corn has widened. With the increase in wheat auctions in March, it is expected that the upward space of Northeast corn spot is limited, and the 05 corn contract will maintain a high - level oscillation. For 05 US corn, there is support at 450 cents per bushel, and it is advisable to go long on 05 corn at low prices. For the 07 corn and starch spread, it is advisable to close the position when the spread is high. For options, a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is recommended [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Data - Futures Disk: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2378, up 11 (0.46%); C2605 closed at 2376, unchanged; C2509 closed at 2405, up 6 (0.25%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2740, unchanged; CS2605 closed at 2765, up 2 (0.07%); CS2509 closed at 2775, down 5 (-0.18%). The trading volume and position of each contract also changed to varying degrees [2]. - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, etc. showed different levels, and the basis also varied. Starch spot prices in different enterprises such as Longfeng, COFCO, etc. were also different, with the price of Hengren工贸 down 10 yuan. The basis of starch in each region was positive [2]. - Spread: For corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 was 2, up 11; C05 - C09 was - 29, down 6; C09 - C01 was 27, down 5. For starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 25, down 2; CS05 - CS09 was - 10, up 7; CS09 - CS01 was 35, down 5. For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 370, down 11; CS01 - C01 was 362, down 11; CS05 - C05 was 389, up 2 [2]. Market Judgment - Corn: Crude oil is at a high level, US corn oscillates narrowly, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened, so US corn will still oscillate strongly. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port's closing price is stable, and the spot in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The amount of corn processed in North China has decreased, and the spot price is stable. The price difference between North China corn and Northeast corn has widened. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, the price of North China wheat is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, reducing the cost - effectiveness of corn. The domestic breeding demand is average, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the short - term corn spot is relatively strong. The 05 corn contract oscillates weakly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the auction policy [4][7]. - Starch: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, the Shandong corn spot is stable, and the starch in Shandong is around 3010 yuan. The Northeast starch spot is also strong. The corn starch inventory has increased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 121.7 million tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 1.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term North China corn is strong, and the Northeast corn is relatively stable. It is expected that the amount of corn will increase, the downstream operating rate will increase, and the upward space of corn spot is limited. The 05 starch contract oscillates narrowly following corn, and the short - term upward space of starch spot is limited. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. Corn Options - Option Strategy: A short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is recommended [12]. Relevant Attached Figures - The attached figures show the northern port's corn closing price, the basis of the corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 05 contract, which visually reflect the price trends and relationships of corn and corn starch [15][16][20].