油粕日报：关注月底报告-20260326

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Spot buyers are advised to actively fix prices at lower levels, and attention should be paid to the release of the estimated planting area of US soybeans at the end of the month [1]. - The oil and fat sector remains strong. Future focus should be on the US biofuel blending obligation volume and the development of the Middle East situation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal - The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production is estimated to reach 184.7 million tons, with the planting area estimated at 49.1 million hectares (an increase of 300,000 hectares from the previous forecast) and the national average soybean yield rising from 62.5 bags per hectare to 62.7 bags per hectare [1]. - The estimated soybean export volume from Brazil in March 2026 is 15.87 million tons, a 0.9% increase from March 2025. The export volume from March 15 - 21 was 3.53 million tons, and the expected export volume from March 22 - 28 is 4.26 million tons. The total export volume in the first three months of this year is 27.11 million tons [1]. - Trump's visit to China in May 14 - 15, 2026, provides a framework for US soybean demand. The resumption of Brazilian soybean shipments and the expected increase in the planting area of US soybeans put pressure on US soybeans [1]. 3.2. Oils - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, as Iran rejects the US cease - fire request, supports oil prices and boosts the demand for BMD crude palm oil in the biofuel industry. The support level for BMD crude palm oil futures is estimated at 4,454 ringgit per ton [2]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25 was 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase from the same period last month [2]. - Trump's social media messages influence the short - term trends of crude oil and the oil and fat sector. The situation of Iran and the upcoming announcement of US biofuels affect the market [2].