PP日报：PP高开后震荡运行-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP's domestic supply - demand pattern has improved, but the Middle East situation is volatile, causing large market fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily exit the market and observe, while paying attention to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of March 20, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly as they were less accepting of high - priced raw materials. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28% [1] - On March 26, new shutdown devices such as the third line of Ningxia Baofeng and the first line of Maoming Petrochemical were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 73%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29% [1][4] - After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory has been reduced, and it is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1] - The cost of crude oil dropped from a high level and then stabilized. There were reports of potential negotiations between the US and Iran, but Iranian officials denied it. The Middle East situation affects energy and chemical industries. Although PP does not rely on Middle East imports, its upstream depends on Middle East LPG and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials led to reduced operation of olefin plants at home and abroad [1] - After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film increased. However, downstream customers were resistant to high prices, and spot transactions were weak. The inability to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz still implies a reduction in PP supply [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher, increased positions, and fluctuated. The lowest price was 8888 yuan/ton, the highest was 9246 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 9120 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.39%. The open interest increased by 4112 lots to 343310 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in different regions showed mixed trends. The drawstring was quoted at 8450 - 8980 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply - On March 26, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 73%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29% [4] 3.3.2 Demand - As of the week of March 20, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28% [4] 3.3.3 Inventory - On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 805,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4] 3.3.4 Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $104 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $20 per ton to $1250 per ton week - on - week [4]