PVC日报：震荡下行-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a state of volatile decline. The supply side sees a decrease in the PVC operating rate, while the demand side's recovery is limited due to the ongoing adjustment in the real - estate sector. Although the social inventory has decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival, it remains at a high level. With the uncertainty in the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to temporarily exit the market and wait and see [1] Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream is stable. The PVC operating rate has decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 80.12%, dropping to a neutral level in recent years. The average downstream operating rate of PVC has increased by 2.33 percentage points to 41.66% after the Spring Festival, but it is 4.79 percentage points lower than the same period last lunar year. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have risen significantly. The social inventory has decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival, but it is still high. The real - estate sector is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The PVC industry has an anti - involution expectation, and there is an expectation of reduced supply if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation [1] 2.期现行情 - The PVC2605 contract increased its positions and declined in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 5553 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5730 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5650 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.48%. The position volume increased by 7944 lots to 724702 lots [2] 3.基差方面 - On March 26, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 5435 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5650 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 215 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3] 4.基本面跟踪 Supply - Ethylene - based devices such as Qingdao Gulf and Xinpu Chemical have reduced their operating loads. The PVC operating rate has decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 80.12%, dropping to a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of 2025, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December 2025 [4] Demand - The real - estate sector is still in the adjustment stage. From January to February 2026, the national real - estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The sales area of commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 15.9%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 818.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 21.8%. The newly started area of houses was 50.84 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%; the newly started area of residential houses was 36.95 million square meters, a decrease of 23.3%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The completed area of houses was 63.2 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%; the completed area of residential houses was 46.25 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 26.9%. As of the week of March 22, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 13.10% week - on - week, but it was still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [5] Inventory - As of the week of March 19, the PVC social inventory decreased by 2.55% week - on - week to 1.3713 million tons, 64.47% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival, but it was still high [6]