软商品日报：震荡上行-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the short - term, with a recommendation to go long at low levels. The sugar market is likely to continue its oscillating upward trend, and its downside space is gradually narrowing [1][3] Summary by Related Content Cotton - Downstream demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" season is fair, with an increase in order volume, stable spinning mill operating rates, and cotton raw material restocking at low prices. The cotton supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the reduction of the new - season cotton planting area [1] - The confirmed schedule of Trump's visit to China in May 2026 is expected to stabilize Sino - US trade, with potential for tariff cuts and US cotton purchases [1] Sugar - Due to the ongoing Middle - East conflict, the ICE raw sugar futures price rebounded and reached a new high in nearly 5 months, closing at 15.9 cents per pound, up 0.38 cents per pound. The impact of geopolitical situation changes on sugar prices needs to be closely monitored [2] - India's food department announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 is 230 tons, 5 tons less than the same period last year. After the quota announcement, the local sugar price is expected to maintain a range - bound trend [2] - The estimated cost of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment within the quota is 4378 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 5573 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1272 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 77 yuan per ton [2] - The increase in the outer - market raw sugar price narrows the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, raw sugar is gradually emerging from the bottom. The downside space of sugar is expected to shrink, and the bottom - building market is becoming clear [3]