橡胶甲醇原油：多空分歧出现，能化高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising on Thursday. The closing price increased by 0.55% to 16,460 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount widened to 45 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the new rubber - tapping season, the supply of Shanghai rubber is expected to increase, and it is predicted that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a weak - oscillating trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating upward, and rising significantly on Thursday. The futures price reached a maximum of 3,231 yuan/ton and a minimum of 3,078 yuan/ton, and the closing price rose by 4.74% to 3,202 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 245 yuan/ton. Affected by the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks, the upward momentum of methanol weakened, and it is expected that the methanol futures may maintain a high - level oscillating consolidation trend in the future [7]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating and stabilizing, and slightly rising on Thursday. The futures price reached a maximum of 743.6 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 711.6 yuan/barrel, and the closing price slightly rose by 0.81% to 733.1 yuan/barrel. Due to the short - term signal of peace talks between the US and Iran released by Trump, the geopolitical sentiment has cooled down. However, Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, and there are still geopolitical risks between the US and Iran. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price may maintain a high - level oscillating consolidation trend in the future [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons or 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%, and the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points [9]. - As of March 20, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain at the current level in the next cycle, with little overall fluctuation [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. From January to February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% respectively. Although automobile sales in the first two months declined due to multiple factors, exports maintained high growth, with a year - on - year increase of 52.4% in February [10]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.66%, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.99%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0749 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 170 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 221,200 tons compared with 1.8537 million tons last year [11]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 33.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.30%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 10.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 88.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 57.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.82 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.61% [11]. - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic methanol to olefin futures market profit was - 278 yuan/ton, a significant week - on - week decline of 466 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decline of 169 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 826,700 tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 53,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 148,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 137,000 tons. As of the week of March 26, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 435,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,400 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 100,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 107,200 tons compared with 327,800 tons last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the daily average US crude oil production was 13.657 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 83,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 456.2 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 6.926 million barrels and a slight year - on - year increase of 22.558 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 30.945 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.421 million barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.442 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 92.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.9 percentage points [13]. - As of March 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 218,688 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9,327 contracts and a significant increase of 79,579 contracts or 57.21% compared with the February average of 139,109 contracts. On the other hand, as of March 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 328,704 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 41,736 contracts and a significant increase of 167,310 contracts or 103.67% compared with the February average of 161,394 contracts [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,300 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 16,460 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | - 160 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 3,118 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 3,202 yuan/ton | +113 yuan/ton | - 84 yuan/ton | - 113 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 676.3 yuan/barrel | +1.4 yuan/barrel | 733.1 yuan/barrel | +9.2 yuan/barrel | - 56.8 yuan/barrel | - 7.8 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][18][20][21][23]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29][31][33][35][37]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][42][44][46][48].