沥青日报：震荡上行-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% week-on-week, lower than the same period last year and at a multi - year low. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, with most downstream operating rates rising. The road asphalt operating rate increased 1 percentage point to 10% week - on - week but was still below the end - of - January level. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased 37.6% to 10.99 tons week - on - week. The asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased slightly week - on - week and remained at a multi - year low. The price of asphalt in Shandong increased, but the basis was still low. China's import of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention, and the Middle East raw material supply will be affected by the US - Israel attack on Iran. Although the supply - demand situation of asphalt has improved, due to the uncertain US - Iran negotiations and the unresolved supply - side pressure, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The asphalt 2606 contract rose 4.17% to 4,543 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 4,361 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,599 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest of 34,506 to 275,580 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 4,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract fell to - 213 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 2. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Tahe Petrochemical shut down or reduced their loads, and the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a multi - year low. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets in the road transport industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% in the same period of 2025 but still showing a year - on - year decline. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets for infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant increase from - 2.2% in the same period of 2025. As of the week of March 20, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and most downstream operating rates rose, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing 1 percentage point to 10% week - on - week but still below the end - of - January level [1][4] - Inventory: As of the week of March 20, the asphalt refinery inventory rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 17.6% week - on - week compared with the week of March 13, remaining at a multi - year low [1][4]