甲醇日报：进口难以补充，继续走强-20260326

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Methanol is expected to continue to strengthen after a short - term correction. The short - term volatility is intensified due to the current situation. The supply will take time to return to the pre - war state, and the overall situation is still bullish in the short term. It is necessary to focus on the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends, with relatively high short - term risks [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of March 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.50 tons, a decrease of 5.04 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 28.39 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 115.55 tons, a decrease of 10.62 tons from the previous data. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.57%, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The restart of the second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei and the increase in the load of Tianjin Bohua led to an increase in industry start - up [1] - Zhengshang Institute decided to add Anhui Province as the methanol futures delivery area to improve the function of methanol futures and serve the industrial development. It is now publicly soliciting designated delivery warehouses for methanol futures. The premium and discount for the new delivery area is 150 yuan/ton, to be implemented from the date of the announcement of the new delivery warehouses [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In March, the traffic volume of the Strait of Hormuz dropped by more than 90%. An Iranian Revolutionary Guard ordered a ship to return. The UK Royal Navy will lead a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [2] - A person from the securities department of China Merchants Energy Shipping revealed that the company has no ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, and has no plan to pass through the risk area after the war, instead choosing other shipping routes. The current tanker freight rate has increased by more than 50% compared with before the war [2] - The US plans to cease fire for one month, and a plan to end the conflict with Iran was exposed [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Due to the inconsistent statements of the two sides in the Middle East peace talks and the changes in key events, crude oil may experience sharp fluctuations. Methanol's short - term fluctuations are intensified by the situation. Considering the damaged facilities and production capacity in the war, it will take time for the supply to return to the pre - war state. With the Strait of Hormuz not fully open, methanol is still considered bullish after a short - term correction, and the US - Iran situation and crude oil trends should be closely monitored [4]