原油日报：震荡运行-20260326

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to rise. The market is focused on the Middle East situation. Although measures such as the release of strategic oil reserves and the relaxation of sanctions have alleviated short - term supply pressure, it is still lower than the previous crude oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation in the Middle East is complex, with news frequently disturbing crude oil prices, and there is still a risk of significant fluctuations in crude oil. It is recommended to participate with caution [1] - The price of the main crude oil futures contract 2605 rose by 0.81% to 733.1 yuan/ton, with the lowest price at 711.6 yuan/ton, the highest price at 743.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1367 to 53038 lots [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - The EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. Iran has a large crude oil production and export volume, with a daily production of about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of the global production, and a daily export of about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly shut down for many days, leading to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although the IEA announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The US has taken a series of measures to relax sanctions, which have alleviated short - term supply pressure but are still lower than the previous shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz. There are different stances on the Middle East situation, and the risk of significant crude oil price fluctuations remains [1] 2.期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2605 rose by 0.81% to 733.1 yuan/ton, with the lowest price at 711.6 yuan/ton, the highest price at 743.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1367 to 53038 lots [2] 3.基本面跟踪 - The EIA's latest short - term energy outlook expects the Brent crude oil price in 2026 to be $78.84 per barrel (previously expected to be $57.69 per barrel), and in 2027 to be $64.47 per barrel (previously expected to be $53 per barrel). It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months and will fall to $80 per barrel in the third quarter. In terms of supply and demand, the EIA expects the global oil production in 2026 to be 107 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 107.8 million barrels per day; the global oil demand in 2026 is expected to be 105.2 million barrels per day, higher than the previous forecast of 104.8 million barrels per day. The OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts unchanged, expecting the global oil demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 to 106.53 million barrels per day and by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 to 107.87 million barrels per day. The IEA has significantly reduced the global crude oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and the crude oil demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March [3] - On the evening of March 25, the US EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventories for the week ending March 20 increased by 6.926 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 477,000 barrels and 4.40% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.593 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 2.143 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 3.032 million barrels, while the expected decrease was 1.292 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 3.421 million barrels. The OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day compared to January, mainly affected by the production increases in Venezuela, Iraq, etc. The US crude oil production for the week of March 20 decreased by 11,000 barrels per day to 13.657 million barrels per day, near the historical high [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.678 million barrels per day, a 0.38% increase compared to the same period last year, and the increase compared to the same period last year has decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline production increased by 2.25% to 8.924 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 8.796 million barrels per day, a 0.41% decrease compared to the same period last year; the weekly diesel production decreased by 18.89% to 3.568 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 3.933 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared to the same period last year. The decrease in diesel and other oil products led to a 7.56% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6]