螺纹日报：震荡偏弱-20260326

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the rebar market is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term rebar prices will oscillate weakly but with limited downside. There is some optimism as prices are supported by the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. In the short - term, there is upward momentum due to supply contraction and inventory reduction, but weak demand restricts the upside. In the medium - term, the key is the demand recovery. If demand continues to pick up, rebar prices may start a trend - based rebound; if demand remains weak, prices will stay in an oscillating pattern [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Thursday, the rebar main contract's open interest decreased by 40,508 lots. Trading volume shrank compared to the previous day, with 406,440 lots. In terms of moving averages, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average of 3136, and the daily line is above the 30 - day moving average of 3096 and the 60 - day moving average of 3115, indicating short - term weakness and medium - term strength [1] - Spot Price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Basis: Futures were at a discount of 102 yuan/ton to the spot [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Situation - Supply: In the week of March 26, 2026, rebar production was 1.9787 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 295,600 tons. Production has been declining continuously, and the year - on - year drop is significant as steel mills are actively reducing production [3] - Demand: In the same week, the current apparent demand was 2.2537 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 172,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 199,600 tons. Weekly demand has improved, but it is still weak year - on - year, and the demand recovery is insufficient [3] - Inventory - Social Inventory: 6.4275 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,600 tons. Social inventory is continuously being depleted, but it is still higher than in previous years, and the terminal's purchasing enthusiasm is average [3] - Steel Mill Inventory: 2.1916 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 170,400 tons. Mill inventory is being depleted weekly and is slightly higher year - on - year, and the inventory pressure on steel mills is marginally relieved [3] - Total Inventory: 8.6191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 275,000 tons. The total inventory is being depleted weekly, but there is still about a 5% year - on - year inventory build - up, and inventory pressure remains [3] - Cost and Profit: Rebar prices are at a low valuation. Geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [4] - Macro - level: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, allocating 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. Market expectations for infrastructure and real estate support have increased, and sentiment has received phased support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Steel mills are actively reducing production, supply has significantly shrunk, inventory is continuously being depleted, the inventory - to - sales ratio has improved, and rebar prices have bottom - end support [5] - Bearish Factors: Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, the recovery is below expectations, total inventory is still building up year - on - year, and traders lack confidence, which restricts the upside of rebar prices [5]