山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals faced downward pressure. The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 0.28%, Shanghai Silver down 0.85%, Platinum down 4.78%, and Palladium down 5.23% [1]. - In the short - term, the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East has eased. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - Iran is considering the US cease - fire proposal but has no intention to negotiate. Trump said that the US - Iran negotiation has made progress, and the media reported that the US has submitted a 15 - point cease - fire plan to Iran [1]. - In February, US import prices had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed maintained interest rates this month, stating that the Iran war makes the policy outlook highly uncertain. It is expected that inflation will rise, the unemployment rate will remain stable, and there will be one interest rate cut this year. Traders have postponed their bets on interest rate cuts to 2027 [1]. - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; Palladium's short - term demand remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly oscillating in the short - term, oscillating at a low level in the medium - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4503.30 per ounce, up 0.63% from the previous day and down 6.65% from last week; London gold was at $4564.55 per ounce, up 3.42% from the previous day and down 6.27% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 995.98 yuan per gram, down 1.77% from the previous day and down 6.22% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 989.77 yuan per gram, down 2.43% from the previous day and down 6.84% from last week [2]. - Other data: Comex gold open interest was 411388 lots, Shanghai Gold main contract open interest was 170696 lots, Gold T + D open interest was 45964 lots; LBMA gold inventory was 9210 tons, Comex gold inventory was 1000 tons, Shanghai Gold inventory was 107 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 105920 lots; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1066.99 tons; Shanghai Gold registered warehouse receipts were 105 tons [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $71.45 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and down 5.27% from last week; London silver was at $73.17 per ounce, up 4.57% from the previous day and down 6.91% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17472 yuan per kilogram, down 3.53% from the previous day and down 2.85% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 17292 yuan per kilogram, down 4.57% from the previous day and down 3.88% from last week [4]. - Other data: Comex silver open interest was 114758 lots, Shanghai Silver main contract open interest was 3299850 lots, Silver T + D open interest was 2872224 lots; LBMA silver inventory was 27065 tons, Comex silver inventory was 10227 tons, Shanghai Silver inventory was 370 tons, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory was 301 tons, and the total visible inventory was 37955 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 9301 lots; iShare silver ETF holdings were 15513.67 tons; Shanghai Silver registered warehouse receipts were 362495 kilograms [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6][7]. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day and down 3.47% from last week; London platinum was at $2118 per ounce, up 1.97% from the previous day and down 0.66% from last week; Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% from the previous day and down 1.75% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 548.93 yuan per gram, up 3.84% from the previous day and down 1.82% from last week [7]. - Other data: NYMEX platinum open interest was 34868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day and down 5.91% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 7239 lots [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day and down 5.37% from last week; London palladium was at $1601 per ounce, down 3.04% from the previous day and down 2.97% from last week; Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% from the previous day and down 3.73% from last week [8]. - Other data: NYMEX palladium open interest was 14847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day and up 0.53% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% from the previous day and up 19.79% from last week; CFTC managed - fund net long position was - 362 lots [8]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit was 3.75%, discount rate was 3.75%, reserve balance interest rate was 3.65%, Fed total assets were $67071.04 billion, M2 year - on - year growth was 4.88%, 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.62%, US dollar index was 99.64, US Treasury yield spreads (3 - month to 10 - year) was - 0.11, US Treasury yield spreads (2 - year to 10 - year) was - 0.60, US - EU yield spread (10 - year Treasury) was 1.74, US - China yield spread (10 - year Treasury) was 3.05 [9]. - US inflation data: CPI year - on - year was 2.40%, CPI month - on - month was 0.50%, core CPI year - on - year was 2.50%, core CPI month - on - month was 0.40%, PCE price index year - on - year was 2.83%, core PCE price index year - on - year was 3.06%, 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.40%, 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.20 [9]. - US economic growth data: GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 2.10%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was 0.70, unemployment rate was 4.40%, non - farm payrolls monthly change was - 9.20 million, labor force participation rate was 61.90%, average hourly wage growth was 3.80%, weekly working hours were 34.30, ADP employment was 6.30 million, initial jobless claims were 20.50 million, job openings were 711.00 million, Challenger job cuts were 4.83 million [9]. - US real estate market data: NAHB housing market index was 38.00, existing home sales were 409.00 million units, new home sales were 48.00 million units, new home starts were 104.30 million units [9]. - US consumption data: Retail sales year - on - year growth was 2.08%, retail sales month - on - month growth was 0.03%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth was 5.25%, personal consumption expenditure month - on - month growth was 0.38%, personal savings as a percentage of disposable income was 4.50 [10][11]. - US industrial data: Industrial production index year - on - year growth was 1.44%, industrial production index month - on - month growth was 0.15%, capacity utilization rate was 76.29%, new orders for durable goods were $792.65 billion, new orders for durable goods year - on - year growth was 5.34% [11]. - US trade data: Exports year - on - year growth was 9.68%, exports month - on - month growth was - 17.23%, imports year - on - year growth was - 26.33%, imports month - on - month growth was - 2.30, trade balance was - $54.5 billion [11]. - US economic survey data: ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.40, ISM services PMI was 56.10, Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.40, Markit services PMI was 51.10, University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 55.50, small business optimism index was 98.80, US investor confidence index was 7.20 [11]. - Central bank gold reserves: China's was 2308.50 tons, the US's was 8133.46 tons, and the world's was 36458.24 tons [11]. - IMF foreign exchange reserve proportion: US dollar was 56.32%, euro was 21.13%, RMB was 2.12%, global was 25.94% [11]. - Gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio: China's was 8.34%, the US's was 81.98% [11]. - Geopolitical risk index was 335.15, VIX index was 25.33, CRB commodity index was 356.41, offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8943 [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate remaining in the 375 - 400 range in April 2026 is 93.8%, and this probability gradually decreases over time, while the probability of lower interest - rate ranges gradually increases [13].