热卷日报：震荡偏弱-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for hot - rolled coils is "oscillating slightly stronger", while the medium - term rating requires further tracking of manufacturing demand recovery and steel mill resumption of production [7] Core Viewpoints - Hot - rolled coils showed an oscillating and slightly weaker trend on Thursday. Affected by the short - term weakness of raw materials, the lower support is near the 60 - day moving average. The medium - term is strengthening in terms of moving averages, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous pressure platform. This week, hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand and continuous inventory reduction. In the short term, hot - rolled coils are mainly oscillating and slightly stronger. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of manufacturing demand and the resumption of production of steel mills. If demand continues to pick up and production is controlled, hot - rolled coils are expected to start a trend - based rebound; if demand is weak and the resumption of production accelerates, the price will maintain an oscillating pattern [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the position of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was reduced by 40,839 lots, with a trading volume of 214,049 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it short - term broke below the 5 - day moving average near 3,313, was at the 30 - day moving average of 3,257 in the medium term, and was running above the medium - term pressure of the 60 - day moving average near 3,273 [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 15 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 3.0561 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,000 tons. The production resumed slightly, and the willingness of steel mills to resume production increased marginally. If the price of hot - rolled coils continues to rebound and the profits of steel mills are further repaired, the output may continue to rise; if the demand falls short of expectations, steel mills are likely to tighten production again, and the output is unlikely to increase significantly [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 3.1363 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,200 tons. The demand recovered week - on - week, and the terminal procurement improved to some extent. However, the increase was weaker than the output, indicating that the demand repair was still insufficient. If the production and sales data of industries such as automobiles and home appliances are good, the apparent demand is expected to further rebound; if the overseas demand is weak and the domestic manufacturing start - up is lower than expected, the demand repair will be hindered [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 3.6942 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons. The inventory of steel mills was 838,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,100 tons. The total inventory was 4.5327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80,200 tons. The overall inventory pressure was marginally relieved [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, which boosted market confidence in the medium and long term. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the downstream orders have not improved substantially. It will take time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it is difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The total inventory is continuously decreasing, the de - stocking rhythm of social inventory is accelerating, the apparent demand is recovering week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil price has bottom support. The manufacturing demand has stronger resilience than construction steel and has fundamental support in the long term [6] - Bearish factors: The output has increased slightly, the supply side has expanded marginally, the demand repair amplitude is weaker than the output, the supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of rebar, and the total inventory is still at a high level, restricting the price rebound height [6]