尿素日报：偏强整理-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The urea market is in a state of strong consolidation. High daily production and state - reserve supplies ensure domestic urea supply, contrasting with overseas shortages. The current fundamentals are in the peak - season verification stage. With a tight supply - demand balance and a positive sentiment in the energy and chemical sector, urea is showing a strong trend. However, due to the domestic situation of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, investors should be cautious about chasing the rising trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1865 yuan/ton, closed higher on the day, and finally closed at 1875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.41%. The trading volume was 196,640 lots, an increase of 4,576 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 2,775 lots and short positions increased by 3,359 lots. On March 26, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 9,024, an increase of 239 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: The market trading activity is poor, but upstream factories have no shipping pressure. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in major domestic producing areas such as Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are concentrated at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable, and the futures closing price has risen. Based on the Henan region, the basis has weakened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract is - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On March 26, 2026, the national daily urea production was 215,800 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.03% [8]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of March 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 700,500 tons, a decrease of 108,400 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 13.40%. The pre - sale order days were 8.24 days, a decrease of 0.05 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [12]. - Downstream: From March 21 to March 27, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 51.24%, an increase of 3.28 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 65.98%, an increase of 6.67 percentage points from the previous week [14].