玻璃、纯碱日报：日内走低-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The glass market is expected to continue wide - range volatile fluctuations, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and terminal demand recovery. The core contradiction lies in the game between "supply contraction expectations" and "weak real - world demand" [1]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain short - term volatile fluctuations, and attention should be paid to energy price changes and whether the cost of soda ash continues to rise. The core logic is the unimproved supply - demand mismatch pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory [3][6]. Summary by Related Content Glass - Market Performance: The main glass contract opened high and closed low, with a decline of 23 yuan/ton or 2.17% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume increased by 278,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 128,000 lots. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands show a short - term oscillation signal, with pressure at around 1070 and support at around 1020 [1]. - Inventory Situation: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 814,000 heavy boxes or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days are 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period [1]. - Market Analysis: The core contradiction is the game between "supply contraction expectations" and "weak real - world demand". High inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound. The real - estate data last month was still sluggish, and the recent downstream demand recovery was also below expectations [1]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The main soda ash contract opened high and closed low, with a decline of 15 yuan/ton or 1.21% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume decreased by 197,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 13,841 lots. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands show a short - term oscillation signal, with pressure at around 1260 and support at around 1200 [2]. - Inventory Situation: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8519 million tons, an increase of 40,300 tons or 2.22% compared to Monday. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 1900 tons or 0.10%. The inventory last year was 1.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 221,900 tons or 13.61% [2]. - Market Analysis: The core logic is the unimproved supply - demand mismatch pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks drive up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction support the market, but the rigid demand is weak due to the float glass production reduction expectations and the photovoltaic industry [3].