天然橡胶日报：高位震荡-20260326

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Rubber raw material prices are firm during the low - production season. As the tapping season begins, supply is expected to increase. Demand is recovering well, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance On March 26, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,460 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +0.55%. The price center of the natural rubber market remained stable. The intended transaction price of the mainstream 24 - year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,300 - 16,350 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,750 yuan/ton, also stable compared to the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Supply From January to February 2026, the cumulative import was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons, or 1.36%. The import volume in the first two months of 2026 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same historical period. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking and arbitrage trading support the high import base. Natural rubber still mainly flows to the Chinese market. Starting from mid - March in the Yunnan production area, the global natural rubber market will enter a new tapping season. High raw material prices stimulate tapping enthusiasm, and the expectation of increased new rubber supply in the future is rising [2]. 3.3 Demand On March 20, 2026, the开工 rate of semi - steel tires in China was 78.25%, higher than the average of the same period over the years, and the开工 rate of all - steel tires was 70.72%, also higher than the average of the same period over the years. The tire production line's开工 rate has recovered, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. There may be follow - up purchase orders, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. Due to the high raw material cost, the profit pressure of upstream and downstream enterprises is prominent, especially the losses in the downstream are intensifying. Some enterprises have shifted to purchasing lower - priced natural rubber to replace synthetic rubber, which provides some short - term support for the demand for natural rubber [3]. 3.4 Inventory As of the week of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 141,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons or 1.29% from the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in the general trade warehouses in the Qingdao area was 561,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons or 1.63% from the previous period [5].