沪铜日报：旺季支撑-20260326

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the copper market, stating that the Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low but ended the day higher. The shortage of copper resources due to overseas supply issues and low domestic inventories supports copper prices. Although the demand in the copper product sector has started to pick up during the peak season, the terminal data is not optimistic. The inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals of Shanghai copper have improved, driving up the price. However, due to the ongoing war, the market is volatile, and the copper price is still under short - term upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply: In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a 6.0% year - on - year increase and a 12.0% month - on - month decrease. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is relatively low compared to previous years. Overseas copper resources are tight, and shipping is difficult due to the war, which supports copper prices. The price difference between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has decreased. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year [1]. - Demand: After entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the copper product sector's production has started to pick up. In February, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a 14.29 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month and a 9.06 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. However, the terminal data is not optimistic, and the feedback on copper prices is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% respectively year - on - year [1]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased by 5.15% compared to last week. The Shanghai copper inventory was smoothly digested during the peak season [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, ending the day higher [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China was 70 yuan/ton. On March 25, 2026, the LME official price was $12,234/ton, and the spot premium was - $99/ton [4]. 3.3. Supply - side Indicators - As of March 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $69.22/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 7 cents/pound [8]. 3.4. Inventory Conditions - SHFE copper inventory was 246,400 tons, a decrease of 5,670 tons from the previous period. As of March 23, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 74,400 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 360,200 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 588,700 short tons, an increase of 461 short tons from the previous period [11].