GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-26 14:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company achieved better-than-expected performance in 2025, with its main brand and professional products continuing to drive growth. FILA showed steady growth, and profitability is expected to improve in the second half of 2025. Other outdoor brands also experienced significant growth. The company has demonstrated strong operational execution capabilities through multiple brand acquisitions and has established a mature systematic operational strategy, maintaining a positive outlook on its global expansion and unique brand assets [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 70,826 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 103,163 million by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.0% from 2024 to 2028 [5][13]. - Gross profit is expected to grow from RMB 44,032 million in 2024 to RMB 64,165 million in 2028, maintaining a gross margin around 62% [5][13]. - Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 15,596 million in 2024, with a slight decline to RMB 13,588 million in 2025, before recovering to RMB 17,183 million by 2028 [5][13]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.67 in 2024 to 12.29 in 2028, indicating a potentially attractive valuation over the forecast period [5][11]. Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue reached RMB 347.5 billion in 2025, with a growth of 3.7%. The operating profit margin was 20.7% [11]. - FILA's revenue was RMB 284.7 billion in 2025, growing by 6.9%, with an operating profit margin improvement to 26.1% [11]. - Other brands generated RMB 170.0 billion in revenue, marking a significant increase of 59.2% [11]. Global Expansion - The company is accelerating its international presence, with overseas revenue increasing by approximately 70%. It has opened its first flagship store in North America and plans to expand its Southeast Asian network to 1,000 stores within three years [11].