生猪、沥青、聚丙烯日报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 26, equity index futures dropped, while commodities were mixed, with Energy & Chemicals leading the raise. IC dropped 1.8%, and IM dropped 1.5% in equity index futures. In commodity futures, Methanol, Synthetic Rubber, and Bitumen were the top three gainers, while Palladium, Platinum, and Poly - Silicon were the top three decliners [10][11][12]. - The supply of live hogs is increasing in the short - term, with high slaughter pressure in the medium - term and potential reduction in the long - term. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. Hog prices are expected to remain low in the first half of the year, with a potential rebound in the fourth quarter [16][17][19]. - Geopolitical tensions drive oil prices, affecting bitumen and PP. Bitumen refinery margins are deteriorating, and supply may decrease. PP prices rebound with crude oil, but the geopolitical outlook is uncertain [28][36][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 26, equity index futures dropped, and commodities were mixed. Energy & Chemicals led the raise. In equity index futures, IC dropped 1.8%, and IM dropped 1.5%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Methanol (up 4.7% with 14.5% month - on - month open interest increase), Synthetic Rubber (up 4.3% with 1.7% month - on - month open interest increase), and Bitumen (up 4.2% with 14.3% month - on - month open interest increase). The top three decliners were Palladium (down 5.2% with 2.3% month - on - month open interest increase), Platinum (down 4.8% with 0.3% month - on - month open interest increase), and Poly - Silicon (down 2.8% with 1.9% month - on - month open interest increase) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Drop - Live Hog - On March 26, the main contract of Live Hog dropped 1.9% to 9835 yuan/ton (DCE). Supply is increasing in the short - term, with high slaughter pressure in the medium - term due to high sow inventory in the first half of 2025 and increased piglet births in January - February 2026. In the long - term, sow inventory decreased in the second half of 2025 but per - sow yield is rising. Demand is weak, and inventories (average hog weight and frozen product inventories) are increasing. Hog prices are expected to remain low in the first half of the year, with a potential rebound in the fourth quarter [16][17][20]. 3.1.3 Daily Raise 3.1.3.1 Bitumen - On March 26, the main Bitumen futures contract rose 4.2% to 4543 yuan/ton (SHFE). Geopolitical tensions drive oil prices, and the bitumen - fuel oil spread is low. Bitumen refinery margins are deteriorating, and production cuts may drive the spread higher. Supply may further decrease due to high refined product margins, while demand faces inventory accumulation pressure. The current bitumen futures are undervalued relative to fuel oil but overvalued relative to steel rebar [28][29][31]. 3.1.3.2 PP - On March 26, the main PP futures contract rose 2.4% to 9120 yuan/ton (DCE). Geopolitical conflicts' duration is uncertain, and PP prices rebound with crude oil. The geopolitical outlook is highly uncertain, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. China's PP imports from Iran are small, and the import - side impact is limited. Oil - based and PDH PP plants' margins are under pressure, while coal - based margins have rebounded. Spot trading of PP is generally muted [36][37][39]. 3.2 Important News - Macro News - Trump is to visit China in mid - May, and China - US are in communication about it [43]. - COSCO Shipping resumes bookings for Gulf States, and vessels will bypass the Strait of Hormuz temporarily [43]. - US - Iran negotiations are "still ongoing and productive" [43]. - Iran rejects the US ceasefire proposal and puts forward 5 Iranian conditions [43]. - Iran seeks to levy toll on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the draft bill is finalized [43].