猪源供应充足，价格继续下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oscillating: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, sugar, pulp, double - gum paper, logs - Oscillating weakly: Live pigs - Oscillating strongly: Cotton - Oscillating strongly in the short - term: Synthetic rubber 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and offers corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [1][5][7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Oils and fats oscillate and rebound. - Logic: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to high - level oscillation of oil prices. The US biodiesel policy and the planting area report from the US Department of Agriculture are to be released. In the domestic market, the shutdown of oil mills reduces soybean oil inventory, while demand is weak. For palm oil, production reduction and export growth in Malaysia boost market sentiment, but high prices and the Middle East conflict may suppress demand. For rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory has decreased weekly [5]. - Outlook: Oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at phased lows [6]. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The spot market has weak supply and demand, and the double - meal disk oscillates. - Logic: Internationally, the expected Chinese policy - based procurement and the upcoming release of the US EPA's biodiesel quota boost the US soybean futures price. The expected increase in the US soybean planting area and high inventory may limit the upward space. Domestically, the soybean meal futures price rises due to the cost - side drive of the US soybean price. The spot market has a game between oil mills and feed mills [7]. - Outlook: Oscillation. Rapeseed meal generally follows soybean meal but is weaker [7]. Corn - Viewpoint: Corn continues to oscillate. - Logic: The temperature rise accelerates the supply of damp grain, and the increased supply of old wheat may put pressure on the market. However, the supply pressure is not significant, and the downstream demand is stable. The inventory of grain - using enterprises has stopped decreasing and increased marginally [8][9]. - Outlook: Oscillation. Pay attention to the callback pressure caused by the increase in damp grain supply and the expected release of brown rice. In the medium - term, corn is expected to be bullish [9]. Live Pigs - Viewpoint: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the price continues to decline. - Logic: In the short - term, the supply increases, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the high inventory of sows in 2025 leads to a large number of piglet births in 2026, resulting in high pressure on hog slaughter. In the long - term, the sow inventory has decreased since the second half of 2025, but the increase in sow productivity may offset the impact. The current process of capacity reduction is not smooth [1][10]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and recover in the third quarter and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [2][10]. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The market atmosphere is warm, and the disk continues to rebound. - Logic: The non - escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the high - level operation of synthetic rubber drive the rebound of natural rubber. The supply in overseas producing areas may be affected by the Middle East conflict, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle East are affected. Seasonally, there is an adjustment demand [11][12]. - Outlook: Oscillation. If there is no further fermentation of events, wait for the opportunity to buy on dips [12]. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The disk breaks through the 18,000 - yuan mark. - Logic: The tight supply of butadiene is strengthened. The disruption of the supply of key raw materials such as naphtha due to the Middle East conflict leads to the reduction of butadiene supply. Even if the cost of raw materials is higher than that of downstream products, the price is still likely to rise as long as the geopolitical situation is tense [13]. - Outlook: Oscillating strongly in the short - term. If the oil price continues to rise, the disk will remain strong [13][14]. Cotton - Viewpoint: The fundamentals are good, and there is strong support below. - Logic: The domestic cotton processing and inspection work is completed, the commercial inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is good. In the long - term, the expected reduction of the planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 provides an upward drive, but the specific policy details are to be announced [14]. - Outlook: Oscillating strongly. In the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [14]. Sugar - Viewpoint: The short - term main theme is that the sugar price oscillates with the oil price. - Logic: The short - term oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle East conflict leads to the oscillation of the sugar price. In the long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect the Brazilian new - season production and tighten the global sugar supply [16][17]. - Outlook: Oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. There may be an upward drive in the long - term [17]. Pulp - Viewpoint: The pulp price declined yesterday, and the pressure still exists. - Logic: The consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. The demand in the 4 - 6 month period usually decreases seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp inventory is high. However, the cost provides support for the price [18]. - Outlook: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4950 - 5350 yuan/ton [18]. Double - Gum Paper - Viewpoint: Weakly oscillating. - Logic: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have no obvious changes. The resumption of some maintenance devices increases the industry's operating rate, but the profit of paper mills is poor, and the production increase is limited. In the short - and medium - term, the demand in the peak season and the paper mills' profit - repair demand may support the price, but in the long - term, the loose supply - demand situation limits the price increase [20][21]. - Outlook: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3800 - 4300 yuan/ton in the first half of 2026 [21]. Logs - Viewpoint: Strongly oscillating. - Logic: The price of logs is mainly driven by cost and supply contraction. The high oil price increases the shipping cost, and the New Zealand suppliers reduce production and raise prices. The low inventory and strong demand in the downstream lead to a supply - demand mismatch [22]. - Outlook: Oscillating strongly. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with strong support below and obvious hedging pressure above [22][23].