山金期货黑色板块日报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the market has entered the seasonal destocking phase, but the future market expectations are pessimistic. Although the recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs and supported futures prices, the futures prices are oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, indicating significant upward resistance. It is recommended to close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is gradually entering the consumption peak season, and iron ore production costs have increased. Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. The futures price shows significant upward resistance after breaking through the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. It is also recommended to close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: The total output of the five major varieties of 247 sample steel mills this week has changed little, inventory has decreased, and apparent demand has continued to rebound. The market has entered the seasonal destocking state [2]. - Price Data: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3128 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.22% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3305 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 0.09% from last week. Other related prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [2]. - Production and Inventory: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 197.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.69%; hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.80%. The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties, as well as the inventory of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, have all decreased to varying degrees [2]. - Market Transaction: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume is 19.39 tons, down 20.29% from the previous day and 18.01% from last week [2]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 887.97 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%; the apparent demand for threaded steel social inventory is 225.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.30%; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil social inventory is 313.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.00% [2]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered threaded steel warehouse receipts is 98088 tons, and the number of registered hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is 537279 tons [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Demand and Supply: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 6.95 tons to 228.2 tons. The short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. The recent arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month [4]. - Price Data: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 817 yuan/dry ton, up 1.30% from the previous day and 1.18% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 107.34 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.04% from the previous day and down 1.34% from last week. Other related prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. - Shipping and Inventory: Australian iron ore shipments are 1701.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.44%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 495.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.24%. The port inventory is 17098.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52% [4]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts is 3200 lots, a decrease of 200 lots from last week [4]. 3.3. Industry News - In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, and the export average price was 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative steel export volume was 1559.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and the export average price was 706.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.0%. In February, China imported 36.9 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%, and the import average price was 1740.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. From January to February, the cumulative steel import volume was 82.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%, and the import average price was 1769.5 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [6]. - As of the week of March 26, the threaded steel output decreased from an increase, the factory inventory and social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent demand increased for five consecutive weeks. The threaded steel output was 197.87 tons, a decrease of 5.46 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.69%; the apparent demand was 225.37 tons, an increase of 17.28 tons from last week, an increase of 8.30% [6]. - Australian ore miner Fenix warned that due to limited diesel supply caused by the Iran war, the operations of the Australian mining industry have been affected, forcing the company to scale back some business activities. Tropical Cyclone Narelle is currently raging along the west coast of Australia, causing fuel supply disruptions [6]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is 21 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is 47 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 76 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 28 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 73 yuan/ton [7]. - Against the background that most orders fall short of expectations, the procurement enthusiasm of the glass mid - downstream has slowed down. The downstream procurement is mostly for rigid demand, and the inventory depletion of glass enterprises has slowed down this week. As of March 26, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises is 7362.2 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 81.4 million heavy boxes or 1.09%, and the year - on - year increase has expanded to 9.86%, equivalent to 33.6 days of inventory, a slight decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. The inventory in the northwest region continues to increase, while the inventory in other regions continues to decrease [7].