五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报2026-3-27-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The Middle - East situation is slightly alleviated but expected to be volatile. Copper raw material supply remains tight, domestic refined copper consumption sentiment improves, and copper inventory is expected to be further digested, providing fundamental support for copper prices. Short - term copper prices may be volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 94,000 - 96,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 11,900 - 12,400 US dollars/ton [1][2]. - Aluminum: The Middle - East situation has eased, but market sentiment is volatile. Overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight due to plant maintenance and production cuts, and domestic downstream demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The fundamentals provide stronger support for aluminum prices. Short - term aluminum prices may remain volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,600 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 3,220 - 3,300 US dollars/ton [4][5]. - Lead: Lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and the开工 rate of primary and secondary smelting enterprises has improved. The social inventory has decreased after the lead price decline. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and downstream enterprises may conduct strategic hedging. However, the high Shanghai - London ratio and high oil prices may put pressure on the lead price, and the lead price may further decline [7][8]. - Zinc: Zinc concentrate inventory has increased, and the import TC has continued to decline. The zinc price has entered a downward trend due to the weakening of the zinc industry and the pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed's monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts [10][11]. - Tin: Tin supply is still constrained by raw material shortages, and the short - term supply increase is limited. The demand has marginally improved, and downstream enterprises' replenishment provides short - term support. However, due to geopolitical disturbances and the fall of the US interest - rate cut expectation, tin prices are expected to be weak. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 320,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 47,000 US dollars/ton [12][13]. - Nickel: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the global nickel supply - demand situation is improving, and the nickel price has strong bottom support. It is not recommended to short. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate: The domestic lithium carbonate production continues to grow, and the weekly inventory increase is the highest since August last year. The supply may be affected if the negotiation on the Zimbabwean mineral export ban fails. The lithium battery demand is expected to be strong. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150,000 - 168,000 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Alumina: The Guinea government may tighten bauxite exports, and the alumina smelting supply is tightening in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton [21][22]. - Stainless steel: The stainless - steel price is supported by rising raw material costs and policy disturbances. However, the market supply is still loose, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and volatile. The reference range for the main contract is 14,100 - 14,650 yuan/ton [24][25]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of production. The short - term price is supported [27][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The US military action against Iran has put pressure on the market. The LME copper 3M contract closed down 1.33% to 12,120 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 95,150 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 350 to 359,825 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by about 40,000 tons [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Middle - East situation is volatile. Copper raw material supply is tight, and domestic consumption sentiment improves. Copper prices may be volatile in the short term [2]. Aluminum - Market Information: The Middle - East situation is volatile. The LME aluminum 3M contract closed up 0.39% to 3,254 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,870 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 0.9 to 558,000 hands, and the aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 15,000 tons [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Middle - East situation has eased, but market sentiment is volatile. Overseas supply is tight, and domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. Aluminum prices may remain volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.21% to 16,459 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S was flat at 1,901 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,300 yuan/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased by 5,300 tons [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Lead concentrate TC has stopped falling, and the smelting enterprise's开工 rate has improved. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, but there are also downward pressures [8]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.58% to 23,071 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose 10.5 to 3,072 US dollars/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 5,100 tons [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Zinc concentrate inventory has increased, and the zinc price has entered a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed's monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts [11]. Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract closed down 1.03% to 348,790 yuan/ton. The production of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has recovered, and the downstream demand has marginally improved. The social inventory decreased by 2,770 tons [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Tin supply is constrained by raw material shortages, and the demand has marginally improved. Tin prices are expected to be weak [13]. Nickel - Market Information: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed down 0.2% to 135,860 yuan/ton. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the cost of nickel ore and nickel iron was flat [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken, but in the medium term, it has strong bottom support. It is recommended to operate within the range [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 0.18%. The production increased by 2.6% to 24,814 tons, and the inventory increased by 616 tons to 99,489 tons [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The production continues to grow, and the inventory increase is high. The supply may be affected, and the demand is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to market changes [19]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index closed down 1.01% to 2,957 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, and the overseas FOB price rose 12 US dollars/ton. The futures inventory increased by 2,400 tons [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Guinea government may tighten bauxite exports, and the alumina smelting supply is tightening in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is advisable to wait and see [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract closed down 0.69% to 14,390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi were flat, and the social inventory increased by 3.04% [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The stainless - steel price is supported by rising costs and policy disturbances, but the supply is loose and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and volatile [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The cast aluminum alloy price fell 0.55% to 22,760 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased, and the inventory decreased [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is supported [28].