能源短缺持续影响市场，化?延续震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy shortage continues to impact the market, and the chemical industry remains in a volatile state. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has created an energy gap, and Asian countries are preparing for the worst - case energy scenario. The chemical industry has mostly entered a state of weak supply and demand, and investors should approach it with a volatile mindset [1]. - Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels due to the uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Other chemical products, including asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc., are also expected to show a volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil prices are volatile at high levels. - Main Logic: The US has postponed its attack on Iranian energy facilities, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still highly uncertain. There is a large supply gap in the crude oil market, and the potential release of floating storage in Iran and Russia is limited. The inventory in China and the US is mainly driven by seasonal patterns, and de - stocking in consuming countries is expected to occur after April. - Outlook: Volatile. Supply shortages persist, and fluctuating geopolitical expectations are likely to keep oil prices volatile [4]. Asphalt - Viewpoint: The asphalt - fuel oil price spread continues to recover upward. - Main Logic: Geopolitical factors are the core influence on oil prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is still at a low level, and the profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated and is expected to recover. Refinery production cuts may drive the spread to rise. The supply of asphalt is expected to further decline, but there is still a large inventory build - up pressure on the demand side. - Outlook: Volatile. The absolute price of asphalt is in an over - valued range, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The discount of high - sulfur fuel oil has dropped significantly but remains at a high level. - Main Logic: Geopolitical factors are the core driver of oil prices. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil have led to a significant increase in its price. The Singapore fuel oil cracking spread has turned negative, indicating that high prices may suppress refinery feedstock and power generation demand. In the long term, the replacement of fuel oil power generation demand in the Middle East is a long - term negative factor. - Outlook: Volatile. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates following crude oil. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen from its high level following crude oil. It has strong product attributes, and its valuation has been significantly repaired during the oil price increase. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The high export tax - rebate rate and high profit are expected to drive an increase in production. - Outlook: Volatile. It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current valuation is relatively low and it will follow crude oil fluctuations [8]. PX - Viewpoint: It rebounds after a decline following raw materials. - Main Logic: The US - Iran situation shows no signs of improvement, and international oil prices have rebounded after a decline. Domestically, PX device changes are mainly within the planned scope, while overseas PX device loads have continued to weaken. Under the negative feedback of lower - than - expected polyester load and increased production cuts, PX is under pressure, and the market trading atmosphere is light. - Outlook: Volatile. In the short term, PX prices may be adjusted according to cost guidance, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips remains. The PX05 - 09 spread positive arbitrage should be reduced when it is high, and the PXN is expected to remain volatile [9][10]. PTA - Viewpoint: Filament production cuts are implemented and the scale is expanded, weakening the demand support for upstream products. - Main Logic: International oil prices have rebounded after a decline. Although the previous cost decline drove the sales volume of downstream polyester, the current high cost still puts pressure on polyester factories. The spot inventory is relatively loose, and the basis has not strengthened significantly. The large - scale production cuts of polyester filament have further weakened the demand and increased the difficulty of inventory reduction. - Outlook: Volatile. It is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend in the short term. The TA05 - 09 spread positive arbitrage should be reduced when it is high, and the short - term volatility has increased [10][11]. Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: It fluctuates strongly, mainly driven by geopolitical factors. - Main Logic: The price of pure benzene is mainly dominated by the geopolitical situation. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has tightened the supply of crude oil and Asian naphtha. On the supply side, some refineries are under maintenance, and the supply may decline. On the demand side, the profits of downstream products, except for styrene, have increased, and there is no negative feedback pressure. The value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for gasoline has increased. - Outlook: Volatile and strong. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the production of refineries at home and abroad may be reduced, and the de - stocking of pure benzene will be advanced [12][13]. Styrene - Viewpoint: Geopolitical factors bring positive supply - demand factors, and styrene fluctuates strongly. - Main Logic: The price of styrene is still dominated by the geopolitical situation. On the supply side, some overseas devices are operating at the lowest load, and some domestic devices are restarting or under maintenance. On the demand side, the overall profit of downstream products has declined, and the comprehensive operating rate has decreased. The non - integrated profit is neutral to low, and some factories may reduce production or conduct maintenance. There is an expected increase in exports. - Outlook: Volatile and strong. Affected by the geopolitical situation, production at home and abroad may be reduced, and export demand may increase [14]. Ethylene Glycol - Viewpoint: The US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to disturb market sentiment, and ethylene glycol remains at a high level. - Main Logic: International oil prices have rebounded after a decline, driving up the cost of downstream chemical products. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main ports will decrease to a low level in early April, and the port inventory will be accelerated for de - stocking. The inability to effectively realize imported ethylene glycol will keep the market in a wide - range volatile pattern. The production cuts of polyester factories have weakened the demand support for upstream products. - Outlook: Volatile. The price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term, and maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude in the short term [15][17]. Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: Downstream enthusiasm for chasing high prices is insufficient. - Main Logic: International oil prices have rebounded after a decline, and the market sentiment is strongly influenced by the geopolitical situation. The price of polyester raw materials fluctuates in line with the cost. The supply of short - fiber continues to increase, but the downstream trading volume is average, and most buyers are in a wait - and - see state. The short - fiber market is polarized, with factories raising prices and downstream customers waiting at high prices. - Outlook: Volatile. The short - fiber price follows the upstream products, and the processing fee has certain support at the bottom. The short - term price volatility is large, and cautious operation is recommended [17][18]. Bottle Chips - Viewpoint: The cost volatility intensifies, and bottle chips passively follow. - Main Logic: The upstream cost has rebounded after a decline, and bottle chips follow the upstream cost. The absolute price change is limited, and the short - term price trend is expected to continue to follow the upstream cost. The supply and demand of bottle chips are relatively tight, and the overall fundamentals are relatively good. - Outlook: Volatile. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee at the bottom is strengthened. Attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on PR and short on PF to isolate the wide - range cost fluctuations [19]. Methanol - Viewpoint: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol fluctuates within a range. - Main Logic: On March 26, 2026, the methanol futures price fluctuated strongly. The inland market is supported by factors such as the rigid demand inquiry and procurement of olefin devices and the positive restart expectation of MTO devices in East China. The coastal market has support from import reduction and inventory de - stocking, but the actual pick - up is not good. The situation in Iran is full of uncertainties, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium. - Outlook: Volatile. The geopolitical premium is difficult to disappear in the short term. Although the price is restricted by the downstream's resistance to high prices and weak demand, there is still room for an upward movement [22][24]. Urea - Viewpoint: Driven by demand and policy guidance, urea fluctuates and consolidates under the game between long and short positions. - Main Logic: On March 26, 2026, urea fluctuated strongly. On the supply side, although there are routine maintenance of gas - based devices, the daily production of the industry remains at a high level of 21 - 220,000 tons, and the market supply is sufficient. On the demand side, although the agricultural demand for green - turning fertilizer is coming to an end, the industrial demand from compound fertilizers, boards, and melamine is increasing. The enterprise inventory continues to decline. - Outlook: Volatile. The current fundamentals of urea are relatively stable. The supply remains at a high level, and the agricultural demand support is slightly weakened while the industrial demand is moderately recovering. The spot price is restricted by policy price limits and commercial storage release, and the sustainability of the futures price increase driven by market sentiment needs to be considered [25]. PE - Viewpoint: Maintenance is increasing, and PE should be treated with caution. - Main Logic: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still highly uncertain, and oil prices are expected to be volatile at high levels. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The energy - chemical sentiment is still volatile in the short term, and the refinery operating rate has declined, which still supports the near - month contracts. The spot price fluctuates, and the downstream trading volume is average. - Outlook: Volatile. The market game is intense under geopolitical disturbances, and the downstream trading volume is average [28]. PP - Viewpoint: Geopolitical disturbances and increasing maintenance lead to PP fluctuations. - Main Logic: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and oil prices are volatile at high levels. The direct impact of imports on PP is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH PP refineries are still under pressure, which supports the price, while the coal - based profit has been significantly repaired, and the overall operating rate is at a low level. The PP spot trading volume is average, and exports have increased. - Outlook: Volatile. Maintenance is still increasing, and the market game between long and short positions is intense under geopolitical news disturbances [29]. PL - Viewpoint: Geopolitical expectations disturb the market, and PL fluctuates. - Main Logic: On March 26, PL fluctuated. Some enterprises released propylene, which intensified the wait - and - see sentiment of industry players. The enterprise quotations were mainly stable, and some prices continued to decline, dragging down the actual transaction price. The short - term powder profit was compressed, and the downstream factory acceptance was limited. - Outlook: Volatile. The operating rate has declined, and the downstream powder profit is still under pressure [30]. PVC - Viewpoint: Supply has increased slightly, and PVC should be treated with caution. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the market is speculating on the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. At the micro level, although the domestic supply has increased, exports are maintained, and the PVC inventory is being de - stocked. The profit repair has boosted the production willingness of calcium carbide - based PVC enterprises, and the maintenance of ethylene - based PVC has ended. However, raw material shortages may lead to an expansion of ethylene - based PVC production cuts in April. The downstream operating rate has improved, but the enthusiasm for chasing high prices is not high. - Outlook: Volatile. In the short term, the production cuts of ethylene - based PVC are less than expected, and the market is slightly under pressure. If the geopolitical situation does not improve substantially, there is still a risk of chlor - alkali production cuts, and the market should be treated with cautious optimism [31]. Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The upstream inventory has increased, and caustic soda should be treated with caution. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the market is speculating on the US - Iran peace talks, and the commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. At the micro level, the domestic production has increased slightly, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the upstream inventory has increased. The marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and production cuts have been implemented. The demand for caustic soda from alumina plants in Guangxi is expected to increase. The procurement enthusiasm for 32% caustic soda is average during the non - alumina peak season. Exports may improve, and the price elasticity of 50% caustic soda is relatively large. The operating rate of domestic caustic soda plants has increased. - Outlook: Volatile. The upstream inventory build - up drags down the caustic soda price. If the geopolitical situation does not improve substantially, there is still a risk of chlor - alkali production cuts, and the market should be treated with cautious optimism [33]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the price differences between different contract months [36]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: It shows the basis and warehouse receipt data of various varieties, which can reflect the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [37]. - Inter - variety Spread: The report presents the inter - variety spreads of different varieties, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., which can help analyze the relative price relationships between different products [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread monitoring data for various chemical products, but specific details are not fully described in the given text.