国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: There are contradictions and differences between the macro and the ore end, and the short - term long - short game intensifies [2][4] - Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the downward space [2][15] - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the situation of today's meeting [2][17] - Polysilicon: It is in the bottom - finding stage [2][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 135,860, down 270 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,390, down 100 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 412,306, a decrease of 48,075 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 243,640, a decrease of 52,312 from T - 1 [4] - Industrial Chain: The price of 1 imported nickel was 136,450, up 1,750 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,083, unchanged from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [4] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the sharp rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions on its local facilities [5] - The approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota is 12 million tons, a 70% reduction from 2025 [7][9] - Philippine miners said that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [8] - A landslide occurred in a tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [8] - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [8] - Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned and fined [9] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimates that the nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [9] - The revision of the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [10] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources aims to complete the approval of the 2026 RKAB for mineral and coal mining by the end of March [10] - Indonesia is planning to levy an "excess profit tax" on commodities, and the president has approved the export tax rates for coal and nickel [10] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 157,200, down 1,920 from T - 1; the trading volume was 260,930, an increase of 27,626 from T - 1; the open interest was 246,385, a decrease of 5,572 from T - 1 [13] - Industrial Chain: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,500, up 4,000 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 153,500, up 4,000 from T - 1 [13] Macro and Industry News - On March 25, New宙邦 disclosed that its operating income in 2025 was 9.639 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 22.84%; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.48%. It has introduced several domestic and foreign leading battery customers [14] - China's first new - type energy - storage artificial intelligence data analysis platform was officially put into use [16] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,735, down 35 from T - 1; the trading volume was 140,735, a decrease of 77,224 from T - 1; the open interest was 229,643, a decrease of 2,435 from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 35,540, down 1,210 from T - 1 [18] - Price and Profit: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,550, unchanged from T - 1; the silicon factory profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 was - 2,396.5, a decrease of 35 from T - 1 [18] - Inventory: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 560,000 tons; the polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 332,000 tons [18] Macro and Industry News - On March 25, Hongyuan Green Energy announced that its subsidiary will invest in the reorganization of Wuxi Suntech. The new Wuxi Suntech will have a registered capital of 1 billion yuan, and Hongyuan Green Energy will invest 630 million yuan, holding about 63% of the equity [19] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]