集运指数（欧线）：现货承压运行，盘面关注地缘扰

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) is 0, indicating a neutral rating [17] Core View of the Report - The intraday fluctuations of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) are greatly affected by geopolitical sentiment. The 2604 contract is suppressed by fundamentals, and its upward risk is basically eliminated, with narrow - range fluctuations close to spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies will announce price increases in the second half of April. For far - month contracts, they are given certain premiums or discounts according to seasonality, and geopolitical disturbances amplify intraday fluctuations. Overall, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - Contract Data: EC2604 closed at 1,803.0 with a daily decline of 6.04%, trading volume of 18,169, and an open interest of 12,060 with a decrease of 3,207. EC2606 closed at 2,364.1 with a daily decline of 6.97%, trading volume of 12,555, and an open interest of 12,845 with a decrease of 560. EC2608 closed at 2,354.2 with a daily decline of 5.18%, trading volume of 1,120, and an open interest of 2,720 with a decrease of 108. EC2610 closed at 1,567.9 with a daily decline of 2.86%, trading volume of 2,222, and an open interest of 7,330 with a decrease of 172 [1] - Freight Index: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,693.26 on March 23, 2026, with a weekly decline of 7.7% and a bi - weekly increase of 8.8%. The SCFIS for the US West route was 1,024.11 [1] - Spot Freight: Maersk's freight for 40GP/40HQ was 2430/2300 in the 15th week; OA Alliance's CMA had a freight of 2800 dollars/FEU from April 1 to 14, and Evergreen 2960 dollars/FEU; COSCO and OOCL were about 2700 - 2800 dollars/FEU from April 1 to 7. PA Alliance's ONE offered 2000 dollars/FEU for a single ship on the FE4 route in the 15th week, and YML's SPOT was 2300 dollars/FEU from April 1 to 13. MSC basically used 2840 dollars/FEU in the 14th week [4][16] 2. Supply - side Situation - April Capacity: The weekly average capacity in April is 31.5 million TEU/week. The recent capacity increase comes from COSCO and OOCL reallocating CSCL GLOBE (18962TEU) from the Middle - East route to fill the AEU7 empty voyage in the second week of April. The capacity in April increased by 0.6% year - on - year and 7.4% month - on - month [12] - May Capacity: The capacity in May is 33.1 million TEU/week, with 4 pending voyages not included in the statistics. The capacity in May increased by 10.4% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month, and the static effective capacity in May is at a historical high [12] 3. Demand - side Situation - The European route is recovering according to its normal seasonal characteristics, without large - scale full - load situations. The PA Alliance is actively seeking cargo in the spot market for the new route upgrade in April, while the OA Alliance's performance is stable. In the long - term, if oil prices rise and remain high, potential downward risks may come from macro - economic negative feedback, which will be transmitted to international trade [13] 4. Freight Situation - The freight rate center in the 14th week was about 2600 dollars/FEU. In the 15th week, the freight rate center may converge to 2450 dollars/FEU. Considering factors such as ship - schedule delays, the SCFIS index may be in the range of 1750 - 1850 points [13] 5. Macro News - There are multiple geopolitical events, including statements from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, responses from Iran to the "15 - point plan", considerations by the US Department of Defense to transfer military aid to the Middle - East, and various actions and statements from the US, Israel, and other parties. These events may have an impact on the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) [11][15]