国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views - Palm oil: Oil price disturbances continue, and it operates in a high - level shock [2]. - Soybean oil: There is little driving force from the soybean system, and attention is paid to the release of RVO [2]. - Soybean meal: It adjusts and fluctuates, waiting for new news [2]. - Soybean: The auction of state - reserved soybeans had a fair transaction volume, and the market adjusted and fluctuated [2]. - Corn: It operates in a shock [2]. - Sugar: It fluctuates upwards [2]. - Cotton: Attention is paid to the impact of external markets [2]. - Eggs: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts [2]. - Pigs: The weight reduction is less than expected, and the central price continues to decline [2]. - Peanuts: Attention is paid to the purchases by oil mills [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 9,614 yuan/ton with a 1.09% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,648 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase. Soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,646 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,660 yuan/ton with a 0.16% increase. There were also data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and price spreads [4]. - News: From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased. The conflict in the Middle East supported oil prices, which in turn supported BMD crude palm oil. CBOT soybean futures rose slightly, and market participants were waiting for bio - fuel announcements, concerned about the Middle East situation and US soybean demand prospects [5][7]. Soybean meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: DCE soybean 2605's closing price (day session) was 4627 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4591 yuan/ton with a 0.54% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2605's closing price (day session) was 2952 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2937 yuan/ton with a 0.47% decrease. There were also data on spot prices, basis, trading volume, and inventory [11]. - News: As of March 19, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons increased. The market was evaluating China's demand prospects, and was also waiting for the announcement of revised US bio - fuel targets and the USDA's sowing intention report [13]. Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2605 was 2,376 yuan/ton with a 0.08% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,365 yuan/ton with a 0.46% decrease. The closing price of C2607 was 2,392 yuan/ton with a 0.21% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,382 yuan/ton with a 0.42% decrease. There were also data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and price spreads [15]. - News: The prices of northern corn at ports and in Guangdong decreased, and the prices in the Northeast and North China fluctuated [16]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 15.87 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5463 yuan/ton. There were also data on price spreads and basis [18]. - News: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar production increased, China's sugar imports increased, and the production in Guangxi decreased. CAOC estimated China's sugar production, consumption, and imports. ISO estimated a global sugar supply surplus. Brazil, India, and Thailand also had relevant sugar production data [18][19]. Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2605 was 15,420 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase, and the night - session closing price was 15355 yuan/ton with a 0.42% decrease. The closing price of CY2605 was 21,640 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 21495 yuan/ton with a 0.67% decrease. There were also data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, and price spreads [22]. - News: The cotton spot trading was cold, the cotton yarn market was average, and the all - cotton grey fabric market's trading atmosphere weakened. ICE cotton futures rose, and the market was concerned about the USDA's planting area intention report [23][24]. Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,418 yuan/500 kilograms with a 2.61% increase, and the closing price of egg 2605 was 3,512 yuan/500 kilograms with a 3.02% increase. There were also data on price spreads, spot prices, and related industrial chain data [27]. Pigs - Fundamentals: The Henan spot price was 9530 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 10160 yuan/ton. The closing price of pig 2605 was 9835 yuan/ton, the closing price of pig 2607 was 11250 yuan/ton, and the closing price of pig 2609 was 12540 yuan/ton. There were also data on trading volume, positions, price spreads, and basis [31]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,000 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,500 yuan/ton, etc. The closing price of PK604 was 8,168 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase, and the closing price of PK605 was 8,258 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase. There were also data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and price spreads [34]. - News: In the spot market, the peanut trading in different regions had different situations, with some regions having stable prices and some having slight changes in trading volume [35].