格林大华期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the uncertain Middle - East situation, international crude oil prices are oscillating between 80 - 100. Vegetable oils follow the trend of crude oil. Palm oil adjustment is basically in place, short - positions should exit, and new long - positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils are oscillating at high levels [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), near - month short - positions should gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 26, international crude oil stabilized, and vegetable oils stopped falling. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8,646 yuan/ton, up 1.12% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 9,356 lots. The second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8,588 yuan/ton, up 1.27% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 17,636 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9,614 yuan/ton, up 1.09% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 5,170 lots. The second - main contract P2609 closed at 9,610 yuan/ton, up 1.05% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 14,286 lots. The main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9,840 yuan/ton, up 1.37% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 1,527 lots. The second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9,738 yuan/ton, up 1.24% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 7,804 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 26, NYMEX crude oil futures rebounded, with the most actively traded May crude oil futures contract rising $4.16, or 4.61%, to settle at $94.48 per barrel [1]. - The market generally expects an announcement on biofuel mandatory blending targets on Friday [1]. - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate. Short - term production may decline due to plantation workers going home for Eid al - Fitr, but is expected to recover after the holiday [1]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggests that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war. The Brazilian energy minister calls for more tests before increasing the current legally mandated 15% biodiesel blending ratio [1]. - The US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports that La Nina is still ongoing, is expected to turn into ENSO neutral next month, and is likely to remain neutral from May - July 2026. El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [1]. - The shipping survey agency ITS shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase compared to 1,022,673 tons in the same period of February. Exports to China were 90,400 tons, an increase of 38,400 tons compared to the previous month [1]. - Due to the ongoing Middle - East war, supply concerns drive up crude oil prices, making palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material. Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 990,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%; edible palm oil inventory was 748,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.75%; rapeseed oil inventory was 295,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 66.81% [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the Middle - East situation is uncertain, international crude oil prices are oscillating at high levels, the US biodiesel policy is about to be finalized, and the USDA quarterly report will be released at the end of the month. There are many uncertainties internationally, and the US soybean oil market is oscillating strongly at high levels. Malaysian palm oil stops falling and rebounds following international crude oil prices. Domestically, soybean oil mills are shutting down one after another, and it is rumored that there will be large - scale shutdowns at the end of March and early April. However, market demand is currently weak, with both long and short factors coexisting. Palm oil mainly follows the trend of crude oil. If the Middle - East dispute cannot be effectively resolved, international oil prices will remain strong. Rapeseed oil oscillates at high levels due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, palm oil adjustment is basically in place, and new long - positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate strongly at high levels. The resistance level of Y2605 is 9,300, and the support level is 8,048; the resistance level of Y2609 is 9,700, and the support level is 8,054; the resistance level of P2605 is 12,000, and the support level is 8,776; the resistance level of P2609 is 12,000, and the support level is 8,710; the resistance level of OI2605 is 12,000, and the support level is 9,212; the resistance level of OI2609 is 12,000, and the support level is 9,180 [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 26, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, and double - meal prices were under pressure. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2,952 yuan/ton, up 0.68% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 57,311 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 3,030 yuan/ton, up 0.76% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 48,167 lots; the main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2,344 yuan/ton, up 0.21% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 11,590 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2,422 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 8,687 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - AgMarket.net expects the US soybean planting area this spring to reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the 85 million acres predicted by the USDA in February [2]. - Patria AgroNegocios reports that the soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 65.79%, behind last year's 73.84% but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in March will be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 16.32 million tons. Brazil's soybean meal exports in March are expected to reach 2.44 million tons, also lower than last week's forecast of 2.66 million tons [3]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons from last week's 5.8215 million tons. The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 672,600 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%; the contract volume was 4.5078 million tons, a decrease of 374,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 24,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%; the contract volume was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, and US soybeans are boosted. Affected by the low - level consolidation of external futures prices and the cooling of capital sentiment, and with the resumption of normal shipping in Brazil after continuous communication between the Chinese and Brazilian agricultural departments, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal focuses on the support at the 2,900 yuan/ton mark. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreases by 20 - 60 yuan/ton with the market. The near - month basis is temporarily stable. As the traditional shutdown season approaches, oil mills maintain their price - support sentiment. However, the breeding industry is suffering serious losses, and the market purchasing and sales slow down. The spot price in East China has partially fallen below 3,200 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term spot price center will move down with the market, and attention should be paid to the shutdown rhythm of manufacturers. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly viewed in the short - term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2,350 yuan. In the spot market, market transactions are relatively limited, and terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The basis quotes in each region are adjusted narrowly. Overall, near - month short - positions should gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For double - meal, near - month short - positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. The resistance level of M2605 is 3,278, and the support level is 2,710; the resistance level of M2607 is 3,000, and the support level is 2,680; the resistance level of M2509 is 3,200, and the support level is 2,833; the resistance level of RM2605 is 2,600, and the support level is 2,220; the resistance level of RM2607 is 2,560, and the support level is 2,200; the resistance level of RM2609 is 2,600, and the support level is 2,274 [3].