金融期货早评-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, and there is a possibility of situation downgrade in the medium - term. The market has lost trust in the extreme - pressure script, and the global asset volatility is increasing. The reversal of global liquidity expectations is the reason behind the invalidation of geopolitical credit. [2] - In the domestic market, Chinese assets have the attributes of a global safe - haven, but the A - share market is still in the stage of releasing external risk transmission and is difficult to remain unscathed. The current core investment strategy should be defensive counter - attack. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: Trump postponed the attack on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6. The US and Iran are in a state of both negotiation and conflict. The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027, while the US economic growth rate will slow down. [1] - RMB Exchange Rate: The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran is deadlocked. The international oil price has risen again, and the US dollar index has received safe - haven support. The RMB exchange rate is under pressure. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark. [3] - Stock Index: The stock index fell collectively due to the repeated situation in the Middle East. The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile, and the large - cap stock index shows relative advantages. [4][5] - Treasury Bonds: The short - term is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to maintain a grid operation idea, buy more positions in batches when there are sharp drops, and sell high in a timely manner. [5][6] - Container Shipping on the European Line: The container shipping index (European line) futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The short - term is expected to maintain a differentiated and volatile trend. [7][8] Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by the overall callback of the non - ferrous metal sector, it shows a wide - range shock. It has strong anti - decline attributes, and it is recommended to seize the low - level replenishment opportunity. [10][11] - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The industrial silicon market maintains a wide - range shock, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance. The polysilicon market has prominent supply - demand imbalance, and the futures price has declined significantly. [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Industry Chain: The macro - expectation suppresses the fundamentals, and the prices of domestic and foreign aluminum are weak. [15][17][18] - Copper: Affected by geopolitics, the copper price is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93000 - 96500 yuan/ton. [18][21] - Zinc: The price is mainly volatile, and the key drivers for the upward movement of non - ferrous metals are the Iranian situation and liquidity. [22] - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The intraday trend is volatile. The new tax policy in Indonesia may affect the supply, and attention should be paid to the demand release rhythm. [23][24] - Tin: The short - term is regarded as volatile, and the key drivers for the upward movement are the Iranian situation and liquidity. [26] - Lead: The price is in a narrow - range shock, and it is expected to be strongly volatile. [26][27] Oils and Fats and Feeds - Oilseeds: The funds are gradually changing months. The large - supply logic remains unchanged in the medium - term, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired. It is recommended to hold the reverse spread between months. [28] - Oils: The market is in a volatile stage, waiting for the US biofuel policy. [29] Energy and Oil and Gas - SC: The oil price fluctuates upward, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of chasing high. [31][32] - Fuel Oil: Wait for the opportunity to short at the absolute price. The market structure and profit are回调, but there is still support in the short - term. [32][33] - Asphalt: The cracking may be strong, and wait for the opportunity to short at the absolute price. The short - term is affected by geopolitical disturbances. [34] Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to be strategically bullish on precious metals in the long - term, and pay attention to position control in the short - term. [36][37] - Gold & Silver: The prices are in a secondary adjustment. It is recommended to be strategically bullish in the long - term, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in the short - term. [38][39] Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The inventory of pulp has increased significantly, which has a negative impact on the futures price. The offset paper futures can try a short - selling strategy. [41][42][43] - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Affected by the Middle East situation, the market fluctuates. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term. [44][45] - LPG: The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the bullish spread strategy after the callback. [46][47] - PP Propylene: The situation is unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [48][50] - Plastic: It is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [51][52] - Rubber: The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range shock, and the natural rubber is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for different varieties. [53][54][56] - Glass and Soda Ash: The soda ash supply pressure is continuous, and the glass is restricted by supply and demand. Both are expected to be weakly volatile. [57][58] Ferrous Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The short - term is affected by the rising cost of furnace materials, and the rebound height is limited. [59][60] - Iron Ore: The market is a mixture of long and short factors, showing a pattern of "strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term". [61][62] - Coking Coal: The price fluctuates widely with the energy supply expectation, and further rise depends on the energy logic driven by crude oil. [63][64] - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: There is cost support at the bottom, and the short - term may have a callback. [64] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Pigs: The futures price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts. [66][67][68] - Cotton: The external market is strong. The short - term is affected by the macro - risk and supply increase, but there is support at the bottom. [68][69] - Sugar: The short - term may maintain a volatile pattern. [70][71] - Eggs: The price is slightly rising. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract. [72][73] - Apples: The futures price is strongly volatile, and the 05 contract is supported by the shortage of delivery products. [78][79] - Peanuts: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to sell for hedging at high prices. [80][81] - Red Dates: The price is under pressure and may be in a low - level shock. [82] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and it is recommended to conduct range trading and light - position long - buying. [83][84]