国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2] - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform [2] - Copper: The market is cautious, and prices oscillate [2] - Zinc: There is support at the lower level [2] - Lead: Reduced overseas inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Ranges within an interval [2] - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval; Alumina: Runs weakly; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Pay attention to the lower edge of the defense area [2] - Palladium: Ranges within an interval [2] - Nickel: There are contradictions between the macro and the mine end, intensifying short - term long - short games; Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors suppress, while the actual cost provides support [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 940.00 with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00 with a decline of 1.30%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 15498 with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17246.00 with an increase of 3.47% [4]. - Inventory and ETF: The inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 99 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 2054 kg. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 265 [4]. - News: Negotiation deadlocks reignited market panic; Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities; the Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold during the Iran war [4][8][22]. 3.2 Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 95,350 with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 95150 with a decline of 0.21%. The London Copper 3M electronic trading price was 12,120 with a decline of 1.33% [9]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 5,670 tons, and the London Copper inventory decreased by 350 tons. The LME copper premium and other spreads changed to varying degrees [9]. - News: Trump postponed the strike on Iran; Zambia aimed to triple copper production by 2031; Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine; China's refined copper production increased, and waste copper imports decreased; Peru's copper production increased [9][11]. 3.3 Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23070 with an increase of 0.59%, and the London Zinc 3M electronic trading closing price was 3081 with an increase of 1.40% [12]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1078 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 tons. The LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 4.02 [12]. - News: Trump postponed the strike on Iran; Iran stated that friendly - country ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely [13]. 3.4 Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16460 with a decline of 0.21%, and the London Lead 3M electronic trading closing price was 1911.5 with an increase of 0.68% [16]. - Inventory and Spread: The LME lead inventory decreased by 50 tons, and the LME lead cancelled warrant increased by 1225 tons [16]. - News: Trump postponed the strike on Iran; the Democratic Party won a key election in Florida [17]. 3.5 Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 348,790 with a decline of 0.98%, and the London Tin 3M electronic trading price was 44,150 with a decline of 1.49% [19][20]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 387 tons, and the London Tin inventory decreased by 60 tons. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium increased by 99 [20]. - News: Negotiation deadlocks reignited market panic; Trump postponed the strike on Iran; the Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold; the Chinese Minister of Commerce met with the US Trade Representative [20][22]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23725, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 3255. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 137.10 million tons [23]. - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2931, and the average domestic alumina price was 2774 [23]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22820 [23]. - News: Iran prepared to deal with the US; the Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold [25]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The price of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum decreased to varying degrees, and the price of Shanghai Palladium and NYMEX Palladium also changed [27]. - Inventory and Spread: The platinum ETF holdings decreased by 18, and various spreads changed [27]. - News: The European Parliament passed the EU - US trade agreement; multiple international events occurred; Turkey sold a large amount of gold [29][30]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 135,860, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,390 [31]. - Industry News: Indonesia planned to revise the nickel - ore benchmark price formula; a Swiss company planned to restart its nickel - mine business in Guatemala; multiple nickel - mine production and operation events occurred in Indonesia and the Philippines [31][32][33][34][35][36][37].