棉花：关注外部市场影响20260327

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the cotton market, including domestic and US cotton conditions. Domestic cotton spot trading is cold, with stable basis overall and slight adjustments in some areas. The cotton - textile market has general trading, with few new orders. US cotton futures continued to rise, hitting a new high this year, and the market is concerned about the upcoming US Department of Agriculture's planting area intention report due to concerns about rising agricultural product planting costs caused by the Middle - East situation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 15,420 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.52% and a night - session close of 15355 yuan/ton with a - 0.42% change. CY2605 closed at 21,640 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% daily change and a night - session close of 21495 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change. ICE US cotton 5 closed at 69.44 cents/pound with a 1.76% increase. Trading volume and positions of CF2605 and CY2605 had different changes compared to the previous day [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: Zhengzhou cotton had 12,444 warehouse receipts, an increase of 100 compared to the previous day, and 339 valid forecasts, a decrease of 91. Cotton yarn had 227 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 2, and 67 valid forecasts, an increase of 162 [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,664 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.48% compared to the previous day. The 3128B index was 16,745 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan or 0.20%. The Cotlook:A index was 78.20 cents/pound, an increase of 0.45 cents or 0.58% [1]. - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,240 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading remained cold, with the basis generally stable and a slight reduction of 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas. Different regions had different basis ranges for different cotton grades [2]. - Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises: The pure - cotton yarn market had general trading, with few inquiries and new orders. Spinning mills mainly executed previous orders, with relatively smooth sales and a slight increase in inventory. The price was basically stable, with spinning mills having firm quotes and traders having some room for price concessions. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a weakening trading atmosphere, with continuous inquiries but no follow - up in transactions [2]. - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures continued to rise, hitting a new high this year. Although the weekly US cotton export sales data was average, concerns about rising agricultural product planting costs due to the Middle - East situation made the market more concerned about the upcoming US Department of Agriculture's planting area intention report [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].