棕榈油：油价扰动持续，高位震荡运行；豆油：豆系驱动不大，关注RVO公布

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core View - The price of palm oil is affected by oil price fluctuations and is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The soybean-driven factors for soybean oil are limited, and attention should be paid to the release of RVO [1]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East supports oil prices, which in turn boosts the demand for crude palm oil in the biofuel industry, providing support for BMD crude palm oil futures. The support level for BMD crude palm oil futures is estimated to be 4,454 ringgit per ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing price of the palm oil main contract during the day session was 9,614 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.09%, and 9,648 yuan/ton at night, with a night increase of 0.35%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract during the day session was 8,646 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.12%, and 8,660 yuan/ton at night, with a night increase of 0.16%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract during the day session was 9,840 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.37%, and 9,844 yuan/ton at night, with a night increase of 0.04%. The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,581 ringgit/ton, with a daily increase of 1.89%, and 4,597 ringgit/ton at night, with a night increase of 0.31%. The closing price of the CBOT soybean oil main contract was 67.85 cents/pound, with a daily increase of 1.12% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract decreased by 49,396 lots to 321,996 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,170 lots to 279,944 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main contract decreased by 24,867 lots to 185,973 lots, and the open interest decreased by 9,356 lots to 545,392 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main contract decreased by 34,893 lots to 161,645 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,535 lots to 218,416 lots [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,175 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 36 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 374 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 310 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 226 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 968 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 4 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 58 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 102 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From March 1 - 25, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.74% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.28% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [2]. - CBOT soybean futures rose slightly. Market participants are waiting for announcements related to biofuels, closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East and the outlook for US soybean demand. The export demand outlook for US soybeans is uncertain. Analysts are cautious due to the upcoming record - breaking harvest in Brazil. Traders are concerned about possible adjustments to US biofuel targets during a White House event on Friday and the USDA's planting area forecast next Wednesday. The USDA's export sales report showed that in the week ended March 19, US soybean export sales increased by 124% week - on - week and 89% compared to the four - week average, with net sales to the Chinese mainland of 26.3 tons [4]. - The Rural Economic Research Institute of Paraná, Brazil (Deral) expects the soybean crop output in the 2025/26 season in the state to be 21.89 million tons, lower than the February estimate of 22.12 million tons. The output of the second - season corn crop in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 17.54 million tons, slightly higher than the February estimate of 17.50 million tons, and the output of the first - season corn crop is expected to be 3.80 million tons, higher than the February estimate of 3.60 million tons [5]. - Analysis institutions expect the average soybean planting area in the US in 2026 to be 85.549 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres and the USDA's forecast of 85 million acres. The USDA will release the 2026 planting intention report at 0:00 on April 1, Beijing time [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [6].