白糖：震荡走高

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The price of sugar is expected to fluctuate upwards [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 15.87 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.32. The mainstream spot price is 5450 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change. The futures main contract price is 5463 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 34. The 59 spread is - 22 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 10. The 91 spread is - 142 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 2. The mainstream spot basis is - 13 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 34 [1] Macro and Industry News - As of March 15, 2026, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season in India increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported a cumulative 520,000 tons of sugar from January to February 2026, an increase of 440,000 tons. As of the end of February 2026, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons, and the sugar production rate was 12.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.01 percentage points. Attention should be paid to changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder and the sales progress in the production areas [1] Domestic and International Market Situation - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of February 2026, China had imported a cumulative 2.28 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 sugar - making season, an increase of 740,000 tons. ISO expects a global sugar supply surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season (previously a surplus of 163,000 tons), and a global sugar supply shortage of 346,000 tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season. As of February 1, 2026, the cumulative crushing volume of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season decreased by 2.16 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 40.24 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons, and the cumulative MIX was 50.74%, a year - on - year increase of 2.60 percentage points. As of March 15, 2026, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 26.18 million tons, an increase of 2.46 million tons. As of March 11, 2026, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 9.79 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 1, indicating a relatively weak upward trend [3]