爱康医疗（01789）：标内稳健增长，出海+数字骨科双轮赋能

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 8.41 HKD [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2025, with a projected revenue of 1.482 billion RMB (+10.1% YoY) and a net profit of 339 million RMB (+23.8% YoY), aligning with consensus expectations [1]. - The growth drivers include the deepening import substitution of joint products and the gradual ramp-up of digital orthopedic products, alongside increasing overseas revenue and customized digital orthopedic services [1][2]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a net profit growth of over 20% in 2026, supported by stable domestic revenue and new growth engines from overseas markets and digital orthopedic products [1]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - In 2025, the hip and knee joint segments are expected to generate revenues of 845 million RMB (+16% YoY) and 436 million RMB (+8% YoY) respectively, driven by market expansion and import substitution in high-tier hospitals [2]. - The spinal and trauma segments are projected to generate 101 million RMB (-20% YoY) due to policy impacts and intense market competition, but are expected to stabilize in 2026 [2]. Overseas Expansion - The company is projected to achieve overseas revenue of 330 million RMB (+20% YoY) in 2025, with an increasing share of overseas revenue from 21% in 1H25 to 27% in 2H25 [3]. - The dual-brand strategy ("Aikang + JRI") and expansion of the distributor network are key factors for growth, with eight new registered countries and an expanded export team [3]. Digital Orthopedics - The digital orthopedic segment, including customized products and surgical robots, is expected to generate revenue of 63.04 million RMB (+22.8% YoY) in 2025 [4]. - The surgical robot "Yidian Lingdong" is anticipated to contribute approximately 40 million RMB in revenue, with ongoing domestic and international market expansion [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 411 million RMB, 479 million RMB, and 553 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.37, 0.43, and 0.49 RMB [5]. - The company is assigned a 20x PE for 2026, with a target price of 8.41 HKD, reflecting a discount compared to comparable companies [5].